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What’s Worth More: An NFL Player or A Draft Pick?
Exploring a market inefficiency in the NFL.
The NFL is a multi-billion dollar entity, but that doesn’t mean that it isn’t without its market inefficiencies. For example, the Dallas Cowboys took advantage of the NFL’s not valuing undersized linebackers in cohesion with those players’ talents. This allowed the Cowboys to get fantastic linebackers at a fraction of the price that their talent warranted. This was a huge reason why the Cowboys were able to have on of the NFL’s top defenses throughout their Super Bowl runs.
Now, the market inefficiency plaguing most of the teams in the NFL is the overvaluation of their draft picks. Sure, the first, second and third-round picks are incredibly important because the players selected in those slots are expected to make an immediate impact. However, we have seen that teams value the latter draft picks much more than they really should.
We saw this when the Oakland Raiders traded Randy Moss to New England Patriots for a fourth-round pick in 2007. We also saw that this offseason when the Chicago Bears traded Brandon Marshall to the New York Jets for a fifth-round pick and the Philadelphia Eagles trading Brandon Boykin to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a fifth-round pick. Moss went on to be one of the most productive receivers in the NFL, while Boykin and Marshall figure to be starters to elevate the level of play of their respective teams.
The odds of drafting a player as good as Marshall and Boykin in the fifth round is extremely slim, but yet the Eagles and Bears still felt comfortable letting them go for such a small price.
In fact, the odds of drafting a starting-caliber player in the fourth round or beyond is less than 25 percent per Datascope Analytics. The means that Eagles and Bears traded two players who can make a huge impact on their teams for a less than 25 percent chance to get a starting caliber player, which doesn’t look like a good decision to make.
However, the fact that teams do covet and value their mid-to-late round picks so much gives the savvy teams an opportunity to acquire very good players at a small price.
Teams believe that they can hit on a player like Antonio Brown in the sixth round when in reality they are much more likely to get a player like Akwasi Owusu-Ansah. The odds just aren’t in their favor, which means that they would be much better off trading that pick for a known commodity that has shown that he can be productive in the NFL.
It is much easier to project a players’ success with your team if they have already shown that they can be productive in the NFL, rather than drafting a player who could develop into something decent, but you just haven’t seen in yet.
Of course, the circumstances of the player are extremely important. You won’t be able to trade for any starter at such a price. Marshall was available because he became more trouble than he was worth in Chicago and Boykin was stuck behind a couple of cornerbacks on the Eagles’ roster.
The types of players that you can typically get with mid-to-late round picks are veterans who either don’t fit their team’s scheme anymore or who are looking for a fresh start elsewhere. These players usually aren’t stars, like in the case of Randy Moss, but they are solid and capable players who will help your team win, like in the case of Anquan Boldin who was traded from the Baltimore Ravens to the San Francisco 49ers for a sixth-round pick.
The smart teams around the NFL could use their mid-to-late round picks as trade bait to help deepen the talent on their squad. These types of moves could be the difference in a team making the playoffs or just missing out or the difference between making the Super Bowl and losing in the playoffs.
The best teams figure out ways to take advantage of the market inefficiencies in the NFL and the overvaluation on draft picks is just the latest.
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