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Week 5 NFL Fantasy Recap: Surprises and Waiver Adds

A look at this season’s biggest fantasy surprises and disappointments, as well as some waiver-wire targets.

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In this edition of our weekly fantasy football recap, we look at some of the players who have disappointed and surprised through five weeks of the season. Then, we take a look at some waiver-wire players you should consider targeting.

The Disappointments

DeMarco Murray, Philadelphia Eagles

Although he had a nice Week Five, DeMarco Murray has not lived up to the first-round hype we expected.  Coming off of a huge year in Dallas, Murray was a first-round pick in just about every draft and was likely slotted to be your best player if you selected him. But that has not been the case.  Prior to Week Five, he had 29 carries for 50 yards and one rushing touchdown.  The Eagles have just looked shaky overall as a team. Murray has not been given great opportunities or room to run, which all running backs need to be successful. Hopefully with the Eagles’ breakout performance in Week Five, Chip Kelly will funnel the ball through Murray more.  While I don’t think he will return to a Top-10 fantasy player, Murray may be able to turn things around a bit and have some value.

C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos

Anderson has been just as disappointing as Murray.  Some regarded him as a safer pick than Murray, as we had already seen Anderson be a top-tier fantasy running back in the Broncos offense.  However, he has basically split carries with Ronnie Hillman, and Hillman has made the most of his touches.  Anderson’s season highs are awful: 12 rushes and 43 yards. Not to mention, he has not scored a touchdown.  That pretty much sums up what you need to know about Anderson.  Did I mention he was a first-round pick in most leagues?  That’s why there is an advantage to drafting in the first half of the first round, my friends. You don’t have to settle for someone like Murray and Anderson – you decide between Le’Veon Bell, Adrian Peterson or Eddie Lacy.  If you’re an Anderson owner, I’m sorry.  All you can do is ride it out with him.  He’s probably not worth starting anymore, but keep him on your bench in case he figures things out and gets going.

Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints

Cooks was drafted as a top wide receiver, but prior to Week Five he had not scored a touchdown or recorded an 80-yard receiving game.   The Saints are not the Saints of old, and speaking of old, Drew Brees kind of looks it.  I don’t see Cooks being a Top-15 receiver this year, but he’s still capable of big games and he’s going to continue to see a lot of targets in New Orleans, especially if they keep falling behind in games.  Cooks can be cheap on the trade market if you want to acquire him.  If you own Cooks, hold onto him and play him in Week Six after he had his first good game in Week Five.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Another sophomore receiver who was drafted high but who has been a major let-down is Mike Evans.  Evans missed the first game of the year, then didn’t even show up on the stat sheet in his Week Two appearance.  Now, three weeks later, Evans has yet to surpass 200 yards receiving on the year and has not found the end zone.  After a lot of talk around the great chemistry he had with new Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston, Evans seems to be an afterthought in Winston’s mind.  Vincent Jackson has gained Winston’s trust the most among the receivers in Tampa and has performed better than Evans to this point.  The Bucs are on a bye in Week Six, and it could be a nice two weeks for Winston and Evans to get on the same page.  I expect a big turnaround for Evans, as Winston knows they are the face of this young offense moving forward.  That, combined with Doug Martin having a great 2015, makes me believe Evans has to improve and be a threat downfield.  It may be a good time to target Evans in a buy-low trade.

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

Luck has really ticked off some fantasy owners.  With last minute scratches and extra games rested, he has not helped you win many weeks this season.  Luck is tied with Ryan Mallett in fantasy scoring and is ranked behind Josh McCown, which should tell you how big of a let-down Luck has been to those who had to draft him as high as they did to ensure they landed him.  When Luck was playing, his offensive line looked like garbage and he tried to do too much. Frank Gore wasn’t doing much on the ground, and Luck was throwing interceptions.  Indianapolis has looked like a mess, and it’s still uncertain what Luck and this offense can really do.  You’re not moving Luck if you own him, and you’re not going to start a waiver-wire addition over him.  Play him, and just hope he bounces back.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

As previously mentioned, Brees has looked his age this season. He has also helped my argument about why I don’t draft quarterbacks high.  Brees was on that short list of top quarterbacks who were being picked relatively high, but he has not played like the fantasy stud many were expecting him to be.  He’s had three games of 300+ yards, but only two games where he threw at least two touchdowns. He has only scored more than 16 fantasy points once.  The Saints miss Jimmy Graham, and Brees is past his prime.  The verdict is still out on Brees, and I personally need to see more of him to judge whether he can return to top-tier quarterback status this year.  If he can stay healthy and the offense can improve, Brees is still a great quarterback to have on your fantasy roster.  I’m not making trade offers for him, but if someone is giving him up for cheap, I’ll buy low.  And at the same time, if someone still is in the mindset that Brees is elite, then sell him based on his name recognition and get more for him than he is worth.

The Surprises

Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons

Freeman is the leading back in fantasy football after five weeks, and has been the biggest surprise at the start of the 2015 fantasy season.  Freeman, whose average draft position was 119, has ascended as a top play for the time being.  In an offense most thought would be pass dominant and feature a split workload with Freeman and Tevin Coleman, Freeman has emerged as a focal point for Atlanta.  Ever since Coleman went down with a rib injury, Freeman has been the go-to guy and taken full advantage of his touches.  Coleman played in Week Five, but was barely utilized.   If Coleman is eased back in, we could see Freeman come back down to earth a bit and lose some touches moving forward.  With that said, my advice with Freeman is to see what the market is like for him.  If you can get a return of at least one elite player as well as another player you think immediately is an upgrade for you, I’d look to sell high on him.  I believe moving Freeman now may be your best bet, as there’s no way he continues this type of output.

Dion Lewis, New England Patriots

Lewis has looked fantastic.  He’s shifty and is utilized in a variety of ways in the Patriots’ offense.  Prior to LeGarrette Blount returning from suspension, Lewis was the lead running back and was relied on heavily in the running game.  With Blount returning, he has been utilized more in the passing game, where he still makes the most of his touches.  In Blount’s return, Lewis is averaging just seven rushes per game, but he’s averaging 6.3 catches per game.  That’s not a great amount of usage, but in a potent Patriots offense, Lewis is a prized commodity.  If Julian Edelman or Blount were to go down, Lewis will become even more valuable.  I say that because at this point we see his floor, and it’s still flex-worthy.  Take advantage of his great first five games, and if someone wants to offer you a big trade for a top-notch player, I’d pull the trigger.  I’m not shopping for Lewis or expecting him to be my No. 1 running back the rest of the year.  He’s a great player to have on your roster, following Football Insiders’ early-season advice of acquiring players from good offensive teams.

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

Fitzgerald has been the biggest surprise at wide receiver, currently ranking second in points at the position.  He leads all wide outs in touchdowns with six and has been red hot with the help of quarterback Carson Palmer.  The Cardinals as a whole have started out strong, and as predicted, Palmer has been a great play while being healthy and in an Arizona offense with a lot of talent surrounding him.  Fitzgerald’s numbers are a bit skewed though, with five of his touchdowns coming in just two weeks, while also averaging seven catches per game over the first five games.  I say these things because there’s no better time than now to sell high on Fitzgerald, and that’s my advice.  He is in an offense with two other solid receivers – John Brown and Michael Floyd – meaning his targets could decrease as Brown and Floyd perform better.  Fitzgerald is older (32 years old), so there’s definitely a possibility that his production tapers off.  There are a lot of question marks, but Fitzgerald has been great and if you played him you’ve been winning a lot of games.  Sell high while you can though, as I don’t expect this type of performance to continue.

James Jones, Green Bay Packers

Jones has been a Top-10 wide receiver this year and he is Aaron Rodgers’ top target when in the red zone. With the ACL injury that Jordy Nelson suffered in preseason and Davante Adams being banged up this year, Jones has reconnected with Rodgers and the results have been amazing.  He has scored a touchdown in every game except one, but isn’t piling up points via receiving yards.  I doubt he can uphold this touchdown-to-catch ratio, but he’s still a great play each week since Rodgers loves looking Jones way in the red zone.  Our advice with Jones for the rest of the season is to keep him and play him.  If anyone else goes down in Green Bay, Jones’ workload will increase, making him even more valuable.  And, again, it’s always smart to have skill players who are part of a good offense (particularly if the best quarterback on the planet is throwing to them).

Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals

Dalton is the top scoring quarterback in fantasy so far this year.  He’s averaging 303.6 yards and 2.2 touchdowns per game.  Dalton just threw for 331 yards and two scores against Seattle, proving that his performances haven’t been a fluke or the result of a weak schedule.  Dalton is a legit top-tier quarterback this year, and his schedule is very favorable moving forward.  If you picked him up early, you have a lot of options via trade.  If I’m you, trade the quarterback you drafted and play Dalton instead.  It looks like he is finally figured things out, and you have to like his upside with all the skill players he has around him.  Dalton has been the most pleasant surprise among quarterbacks this year, and he may even be available in your league right now.

Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals

We all know Palmer is a great quarterback, we just haven’t seen him healthy and in a good situation in a while.  He was injured most of last year, and was off the radar for most drafters prior to this year because it was half expected something would happen to Palmer health-wise, making him not even worthy of a roster spot.   That hasn’t happened yet and he’s been lights out.  The thing is, he’s putting up big touchdown numbers without even having to throw the ball a ton.  He’s averaging 2.6 touchdowns per game and has three games with over 300 yards passing, but he’s also had two games where he didn’t even pass for 200 yards.  He’s efficient and healthy, making him a must-start in most formats.  The advice with Palmer is the same as the advice for Dalton owners. Play Palmer and trade the quarterback you drafted if you can get a nice return. One important note: Make sure you get back a solid backup quarterback in a trade or pick one up off the waiver wire just in case Palmer goes down again.

Waiver Wire Adds

Thomas Rawls, Seattle Seahawks, RB

The timetable for Marshawn Lynch’s return isn’t cemented, meaning Rawls could continue to see time moving forward.  He had 23 carries in Week Five, which he turned into a career-high 169 yards and a touchdown.  He looked really good, breaking a ton of tackles and dominating the touches in Seattle.  If you’re a Lynch owner looking for a plug and play, Rawls is still your best bet.

Charcandrick West, Kansas City Chiefs, RB

Jamaal Charles had a non-contact injury on Sunday, and we are all too familiar with Charles going down.  Knile Davis will be the popular pickup, as he’s been the handcuff for Charles owners for years now.  But who got the majority of the snaps after Charles left the game?  West did, and it looks like this is his job now moving forward.  West is without a doubt available in your league, and if you lost Charles, don’t just pick up Davis – grab West as well. One of these two guys becomes an instant starter with Charles going down, and with the jury still out on who the guy will be, grab both before their value skyrockets and you can’t get them.

Willie Snead, New Orleans Saints, WR

The Saints are playing from behind a lot, and Snead is seeing a high amount of targets from Drew Brees.  The rookie has earned Brees’ trust, and they are connecting a lot this year.  He broke out in Week Five for a career-high 141 yards, and had a chance at two touchdown passes from Brees.  The targets will continue, and the relationship with his quarterback is on the rise.  The Saints need some skill guys to step up, and Snead could be that guy.

Ty Montgomery, Green Bay Packers, WR 

Montgomery was a popular pickup when Jordy Nelson went down, as most thought he would be the No. 3 option in Green Bay behind Davante Adamas and Randall Cobb.  Then James Jones entered the picture, and Montgomery was back to being fourth.  However, because Adams has been banged up this year, Montgomery has stepped in and produced.  He now has touchdown catches in two of his last three games, and has built a good bond and rapport with Aaron Rodgers.  Montgomery has a lot of talent, and the only reason he isn’t owned in more leagues is because of the pass catchers ahead of him.  If Jones or Cobb goes down, Montgomery could see a huge spike in his targets.  If you have the roster spot, Montgomery is a nice addition and bench stash.

Josh McCown, Cleveland Browns, QB

McCown was dreadful last year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and a lot of people including myself believed it would be Johnny Manziel time in Cleveland this season. However, McCown has made it near impossible for the Browns to turn things over to Manziel so far, as he has thrown for 341, 356 and 457 yards in his last three games and has kept the Browns relevant in the AFC North.  With two touchdowns in three straight games and huge yards through the air, McCown has to be brought up.  I’m not dropping someone like Tyrod Taylor for him or inserting him into my starting lineup next week versus Denver, but he’s someone to take note of as he has been putting up huge numbers.

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