Atlanta Falcons (5-7) at Green Bay Packers (9-3)

Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisc. – TV: ESPN

*TV announcers: Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Lisa Salters

*Keys to the game: Steven Jackson showed the tires haven’t completely worn down in bulldozing the Cardinals for 101 yards on 18 carries last week. The Falcons need a whole lot more of that in Lambeau, where the Packers are averaging 40.8 points in six games this season. Atlanta has reached that threshold just once this season, a 56-0 win over hapless Tampa Bay in Week 3, and hasn’t topped 28 points since.

Quarterback Matt Ryan was 3-for-3 with 98 yards on deep passes against the Cardinals and can do some damage against the Packers secondary given time, but that is not a luxury he will be afforded often with Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews Jr. attacking his overmatched line.

The only stat that may matter is the Falcons enter with the league’s worst pass defense, allowing an average of 284.9 yards, contributing to the league’s 32nd-ranked overall defense (403.2 ypg). The Falcons didn’t record a sack against Arizona and have only 14 on the season, leaving Packers QB Aaron Rodgers free to toy with Atlanta’s secondary.

*Matchup to watch – Falcons CB Robert McClain vs. Packers WR Randall Cobb: The Falcons are getting strong play out of Desmond Trufant, but the rest of the secondary is a massive weakness. McClain has been battling through a calf injury and struggling with crossing routes, which is no way to line up against Cobb, who has 65 catches for 922 yards.

*Player spotlight – Falcons LT Jake Matthews: The rookie is finally close to full strength and made strong strides in recent weeks. He’ll receive yet another lesson in working against Peppers.

*Fast facts: Jackson’s 101 yards last week represented the Falcons’ first 100-yard rushing performance in 36 games. … Rodgers has thrown 360 passes with 31 touchdowns since his last interception at home, both NFL records.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

It’s not often a division leader in Week 14 enters as a double-digit dog. But the Packers are on a tremendous hot streak at home and despite last week’s drubbing of the Cardinals, the Falcons don’t have anywhere close to enough defense to sniff an upset.

*Our pick: Packers 38-27