Denver Broncos (8-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)

Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo. – TV: NBC

*TV announcers: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya

*Keys to the game: The Broncos’ schizophrenic ground game pounded out 201 yards on 35 carries against a strong Dolphins defense last week, while the Chiefs were gashed for several big plays on the ground in their shocking loss to the Raiders. Denver can’t count on matching that production, but every yard on the ground helps as protection around QB Peyton Manning has been sketchy on long passing downs. Manning threw for 242 yards and three touchdowns in the first meeting, a 24-17 victory at Kansas City on Sept. 14, and he’ll have plenty of opportunities against the Chiefs’ shuffled secondary if given the time.

Kansas City lost running back Jamaal Charles to a first-half injury in the Week 2 meeting, but still pounded out 133 yards on 31 carries in keeping the game tight down to the wire. That was back when the Broncos’ defense was considered vastly improved. Denver is still second in the league allowing 75.5 rushing yards per game, but has allowed 58 combined points the past two weeks against the Rams’ and Dolphins’ middling offenses. QB Alex Smith will stick to the underneath passing game, content to move the chains while avoiding turnovers and keeping Manning looking for the bench heaters. That places a premium on red-zone production.

*Matchup to watch – Broncos receivers vs. Chiefs SS Ron Parker: Parker moves back from corner to replace SS Eric Berry, who was diagnosed with possible lymphoma. The domino effect puts Phillip Gaines into the starting lineup at left corner, although Chris Owens may return from his knee injury.

*Player spotlight – Chiefs WR Jason Avant: Signed last weekend and reunited with Andy Reid, his former head coach in Philadelphia, Avant doesn’t need much time to get up to speed on the playbook. He could play an immediate role, particularly in the slot, and the Chiefs also get Donnie Avery back into the receiver mix.

*Fast facts: Broncos RB C.J. Anderson is averaging 157.7 yards from scrimmage over his past three games. … Smith has not thrown an interception in his past 169 pass attempts, but has also yet to throw a touchdown to a wide receiver this season.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

The Chiefs have played the Broncos extremely tough in each of the past three meetings before losing late. K.C. can control the clock to keep the score within reach, but ultimately lacks the firepower in the passing game to keep pace with Manning for four quarters.

*Our pick: Broncos 27-23