Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis – TV: CBS

*TV announcers: Tom McCarthy, Chris Simms

*Keys to the game: Scoring-challenged Jacksonville wants to avoid playing tentative at Indianapolis, but missteps in the first quarter could lead to a monumental beat down. Jacksonville has only 34 first-quarter points and the Colts are dominating on opening possessions (70 first-quarter points). Indianapolis has a 111-30 scoring edge in the past three meetings, including 44-17 in Jacksonville on Sept. 21.

RB Denard Robinson, averaging 104.3 yards from scrimmage, will draw a flood of defenders as the Colts strive to erase the memory of last week’s 201-yard performance by Patriots RB Jonas Gray. QB Blake Bortles and the 27th-ranked offense must have early success or suffer the landslide.

In their first game since losing RB Ahmad Bradshaw, the Colts are likely to explore the playbook with RB Trent Richardson, who becomes the bell-cow back by default.

*Matchup to watch – Colts WR Reggie Wayne vs. Dwayne Gratz: In 24 games against the Jaguars, Wayne has 142 receptions for 2,018 yards and seven touchdowns. He had four catches in the first meeting this season.

*Player spotlight – Jaguars TE Marcedes Lewis: He’ll end an eight-game absence from the lineup Sunday, playing despite a sore ankle for the first time since Week 2. He’s greatly important to run blocking and at 6-feet-6, is easy to find in the red zone, where Bortles has been brutal.

*Fast facts: The Jaguars have a minus-11 turnover ratio. … Luck’s nine 300-yard passing games this season ties a team record set by Peyton Manning in 2009.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

Luck is 11-1 the game after a loss in his career, and with the AFC South race tightening, expect a stellar showing against one of the NFL’s softest challengers.

*Our pick: Colts 35-16