Key matchups, players to watch and predictions for all Week 12 games.

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1) at Houston Texans (5-5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at NRG Stadium, Houston – TV: CBS

*TV announcers: Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts, Jenny Dell

*Keys to the game: Giovani Bernard returned to practice this week and, when paired with powerful rookie Jeremy Hill, gives the Bengals arguably the best backfield tandem in the NFL. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson wants to ride them, because Houston has been a house of horrors for Bengals QB Andy Dalton.

Dalton threw zero touchdowns and four interceptions for a passer rating of 48.6 in two wild-card playoff losses to Houston in his first two seasons. The same approach used in last week’s contest in New Orleans — heavy reliance on the run, perhaps even leading with Hill, who has averaged 5.9 yards per carry while gaining 371 yards the last three weeks.

Anything Cincinnati can do to keep the ball — and Houston defensive end J.J. Watt’s feet — on the ground will increase its chances of winning. A good performance against the Saints last week could embolden coordinator Paul Guenther to go after Houston quarterback Ryan Mallett, who will be making his second NFL start, with an aggressive blitz package.

The Texans also welcome back their top offensive player — RB Arian Foster — and the game plan will strive to give the quarterback a supporting role.

*Matchup to watch – Foster and Alfred Blue vs. Bengals LB Rey Maualuga: Maualuga returned last week after missing four games with a hamstring injury while Foster sat out with a groin strain. Maualuga adds toughness and swagger back to the Cincinnati defense, which had become a turnstile against the run, dropping to 31st in the NFL entering last week.

*Player spotlight – Bengals FB Ryan Hewitt: Bernard and Hill get the credit, but in the locker room, Hewitt is considered one of the biggest reasons for the resurgence in the run game. His one-on-one collisions with ILB Brian Cushing, who returned to the lineup last week after missing two games with a knee injury, is a key battle within the battle.

*Fast facts: Foster rushed for 293 yards and two touchdowns in two playoff wins over the Texans. … Houston is 3-0 this season when it rushes 40 or more times. … Bengals WR A.J. Green has 18 career 100-yard games.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

Protecting the passer by using the power equipment at the Texans’ disposal works as long the game is tight. If they drop behind, Mallett is unproven and neither team is entirely certain how he will react.

*Our pick: Bengals 29-22

Cleveland Browns (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Georgia Dome, Atlanta – TV: CBS

*TV announcers: Andrew Catalon, Steve Tasker, Steve Beuerlein

*Keys to the game: After managing just seven points at home against Cincinnati last week, the Browns’ offense is in a state of flux. Out is frustrated RB Ben Tate, leaving rookies Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West to shoulder the load in the backfield. In is WR Josh Gordon, back from his 10 game suspension and expected to play an immediate role despite head coach Mike Pettine suggesting he’ll be on a “pitch count.”

QB Brian Hoyer continues to put up solid numbers, but has sorely missed a downfield threat to help stretch defenses. The Browns will continue to be a run-first team, but even the threat of Gordon can help open more running lanes against the league’s 24th-ranked run defense.

Shortening the game inside the dome is in Cleveland’s best interest with LBs Karlos Dansby and Jabaal Sheard sidelined. The Falcons have made a more concerted effort in the ground game, with RB Steven Jackson getting 15-plus carries in each of his past three outings. That has helped ease the burden on the patchwork offensive line. Along with the return of third WR Harry Douglas, QB Matt Ryan has found a better groove and is 38-11 (.776) lifetime at the Georgia Dome.

*Matchup to watch – Gordon vs. Falcons CB Desmond Trufant: Falcons coach Mike Smith typically doesn’t like to match up cornerbacks, but Trufant’s play has escalated and he was given coverage assignments against the likes of Baltimore’s Steve Smith and Carolina’s Kelvin Benjamin. With injured Robert Alford replaced by Robert McClain on the other side, Trufant is expected to shadow Gordon for how many ever snaps the big-play threat is on the field.

*Player spotlight – Browns LB Craig Robertson: The third-year player out of North Texas takes the play-calling duties over for Dansby.

*Fast facts: Gordon led the NFL with 1,646 receiving yards last season despite playing in just 14 games. … Sunday will mark the Falcons’ first game at the Georgia Dome in 42 days. Their last “home” game was played in London.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

The jury is still deliberating on both teams, which are surprisingly competing for titles in jumbled divisions — to put it nicely. Minus two linebackers and facing Ryan inside the Georgia Dome is a tough task for the Browns, although Atlanta’s offensive line is always a concern.

*Our pick: Falcons 27-24

Detroit Lions (7-3) at New England Patriots (8-2)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass. – TV: FOX

*TV announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Charissa Thompson

*Keys to the game: Getting to QB Tom Brady is essential for the Lions, who did not record a sack at Arizona last week and the secondary paid for it with two early touchdown passes surrendered.

Coach Bill Belichick credits the Lions as being one of the NFL’s best tackling teams for Detroit’s top run defense. Rookie RB Jonas Gray, who had 201 yards and four touchdowns last week, will get another chance to carry the load, with the team also re-signing LeGarrette Blount on Thursday.

Bringing down Brady has been difficult for most of New England’s opponents this year. He has taken just 14 sacks in 2014, but the Patriots are 2-2 when he goes down multiple times. If the Lions can create pressure and limit his downfield opportunities, the defense could keep the game close.

Lions coach Jim Caldwell wants QB Matt Stafford to pick his spots. The Patriots have used bracket coverage on top receivers and will likely shadow WR Calvin Johnson with CB Brandon Browner and a safety over the top, and Darrelle Revis against Golden Tate.

Stafford, when left no choice but to read the field from short to long, can use his backs and tight ends to move the chains.

*Matchup to watch – Patriots LT Nate Solder vs. Lions DE Ziggy Ansah: Ansah leads the Lions with 5.5 sacks and seven tackles for loss. If Detroit is going to hold the Patriots below their 33-point average, Ansah must win one-on-one with the Patriots aiding C Bryan Stork against DT Ndamukong Suh.

Ansah is a combination of power and athleticism off the edge. Solder has been better of late, but had his hiccups early in the season.

*Player spotlight – Lions RB Reggie Bush: He expects to return from an ankle injury and could be critical to extending possessions and keeping Brady on the bench.

*Fast facts: The Lions are No. 1 in total defense, rushing defense and scoring defense. … New England is tied for the NFL lead with a scoring differential of 10.5 per game.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

The Lions lack the running game to match chess moves with Brady and Belichick, but count on Detroit’s No. 1 defense to keep the game close into the fourth quarter.

*Our pick: Patriots 26-18

Green Bay Packers (7-3) at Minnesota Vikings (4-6)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minn. – TV: FOX

*TV announcers: Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa

*Keys to the game: With RBs Matt Asiata (concussion) and Jerick McKinnon (lower back) sitting out practice midweek, the Vikings wasted little time signing Ben Tate after his release by the Browns. Minnesota knows the importance of controlling the ball after watching QB Aaron Rodgers lead the Packers to a 42-10 victory over the Vikings in October and Green Bay scoring 50-plus points in each of its past two outings.

Tate is a physical back at 5-10, 220 pounds, although it remains to be seen how many carries he can log with two practices in the offensive system before Sunday’s game. Whoever is in the backfield must help QB Teddy Bridgewater control the clock and keep Rodgers on the sideline.

Rodgers is 10-4 with 31 touchdown passes and just four interceptions in 438 career pass attempts against the Vikings, and enters TCF Bank Stadium as the hottest quarterback on the planet. RB Eddie Lacy ripped off 105 yards on just 13 carries in the last meeting, so it’s not as if the Vikings can singularly focus on containing Rodgers. What will be interesting to watch is how aggressive Minnesota is in its blitz packages, with a big edge in the turnover battle likely being the Vikings’ only hope of competing.

*Matchup to watch – Lacy vs. Vikings OLB Anthony Barr: Barr and friends can’t get after Rodgers unless they first stop Lacy. Barr, a rookie out of UCLA, had a team-high five missed tackles last week and has 19 on the season.

*Player spotlight – Vikings CB Josh Robinson: The team’s No. 3 cornerback was abused by Chicago’s Jay Cutler, who targeted him on two touchdown passes and another 34-yard completion. That won’t be lost on Rodgers during film review.

*Fast facts: The Packers are the second team in NFL history (1950 Rams) to score 53-plus points in consecutive games. … Bridgewater has a 62.3 passer rating with one touchdown and three interceptions on his first 10 pass attempts of games.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

While the Vikings have been answering questions about Adrian Peterson, the Packers have been devising ways to break more NFL offensive records.

*Our pick: Packers 34-23

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis – TV: CBS

*TV announcers: Tom McCarthy, Chris Simms

*Keys to the game: Scoring-challenged Jacksonville wants to avoid playing tentative at Indianapolis, but missteps in the first quarter could lead to a monumental beat down. Jacksonville has only 34 first-quarter points and the Colts are dominating on opening possessions (70 first-quarter points). Indianapolis has a 111-30 scoring edge in the past three meetings, including 44-17 in Jacksonville on Sept. 21.

RB Denard Robinson, averaging 104.3 yards from scrimmage, will draw a flood of defenders as the Colts strive to erase the memory of last week’s 201-yard performance by Patriots RB Jonas Gray. QB Blake Bortles and the 27th-ranked offense must have early success or suffer the landslide.

In their first game since losing RB Ahmad Bradshaw, the Colts are likely to explore the playbook with RB Trent Richardson, who becomes the bell-cow back by default.

*Matchup to watch – Colts WR Reggie Wayne vs. Dwayne Gratz: In 24 games against the Jaguars, Wayne has 142 receptions for 2,018 yards and seven touchdowns. He had four catches in the first meeting this season.

*Player spotlight – Jaguars TE Marcedes Lewis: He’ll end an eight-game absence from the lineup Sunday, playing despite a sore ankle for the first time since Week 2. He’s greatly important to run blocking and at 6-feet-6, is easy to find in the red zone, where Bortles has been brutal.

*Fast facts: The Jaguars have a minus-11 turnover ratio. … Luck’s nine 300-yard passing games this season ties a team record set by Peyton Manning in 2009.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

Luck is 11-1 the game after a loss in his career, and with the AFC South race tightening, expect a stellar showing against one of the NFL’s softest challengers.

*Our pick: Colts 35-16

New York Jets (2-8) at Buffalo Bills (5-5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y. (PENDING) – TV: CBS

*TV announcers: Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots

*Keys to the game: If the snow ever stops in Western New York, both teams come to Orchard Park rested. The Jets had a bye last week and the Bills missed practice time to deal with extreme snowfall.

Percy Harvin has played three games with the Jets, QB Michael Vick has two solid starts under his belt and offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg had the bye to keep devising ways to utilize the new toys.

Sunday’s scheme won’t neglect coach Rex Ryan’s preferred power-running approach, using play-action to set up Vick showing off his arm and his legs via plenty of deep shots and read-option looks. RB Chris Ivory, the Jets’ best offensive weapon, can be forgotten at times.

The Jets’ objective defensively is to shut down the Bills’ run game and put pressure on reeling QB Kyle Orton to make plays in the face of turnover-inducing pressure. After a solid beginning to his tenure as starting quarterback in Buffalo, Orton has stumbled of late and the offense has just one touchdown in its past nine red-zone trips.

The Bills can lean on RBs Fred Jackson and Anthony Dixon and big-play threat Bryce Brown to keep Orton from facing the wrath of the Jets’ pressure defense.

*Matchup to watch – Bills WR Sammy Watkins vs. Jets secondary: Watkins had 84- and 61-yard receptions in the first meeting, but Ryan said tackling, not Watkins’ speed, is the real concern. The Jets plan to rotate coverage rather than assign a solo cover man to battle the rookie.

*Player spotlight – Jets NT Damon Harrison: Unheralded in a star-studded front, Harrison will see solo blocking against C Eric Wood and when he wins, the Jets force Jackson to bounce runs outside and East-West, as Ryan designs.

*Fast facts: The Jets have gone consecutive games without committing a turnover for the first time this season (minus-11 overall). … The Bills lead the league with 39 sacks.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

The weather is expected to shift to sun and reach 50 by game day, but the matchups still favor two strong defenses. If the Jets can move the ball on the ground, New York deals a serious blow to the Bills’ slimming playoff hopes.

*Our pick: Jets 23-20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) at Chicago Bears (4-6)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Soldier Field, Chicago – TV: FOX

*TV announcers: Thom Brennaman, David Diehl, Laura Okmin

*Keys to the game: Takeaways were the hallmark of the Bears under former head coach Lovie Smith, but neither Chicago nor Smith’s current team, Tampa Bay, is forcing turnovers these days.

The Bears are intimately familiar with Bucs QB Josh McCown, who started five games (13 touchdowns, one interception) for Chicago last season. McCown and WR Mike Evans are becoming a tough cover for most teams. Evans leads the NFL with 458 receiving yards and five touchdowns in November.

The Bucs are built to stop the run first, but with 11 sacks in their two wins, Tampa will be creative trying to rattle QB Jay Cutler.

Neither offensive line is stockpiled with All-Pros, and Cutler was effective last week with a floating pocket and more short drops.

*Matchup to watch – Bears RB Matt Forte vs. Bucs LB Lavonte David. Forte leads the Bears in rushing (733 yards) and receiving (67 catches) and will create matchup issues for the Bucs. David is among the NFL’s leading tacklers but has not produced a sack, fumble or interception this season.

*Player spotlight – Bucs RB Charles Sims: Scouts in the Bucs’ building saw Forte when they broke down Sims’ game before last spring’s draft. He’s working behind a marginal blocking front, but if Sims hits the second level, Sunday could be a breakout game.

*Fast facts: Smith was 81-63 as coach of the Bears, including 10-6 in 2012 when he was fired and replaced by Marc Trestman. … Cutler is fifth in the NFL with a 67.0 completion percentage, which would be the best of his career.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

While not mirror images, the similarities and familiarity between the Bucs and Bears should set up a tight game.

*Our pick: Bears 28-27

Tennessee Titans (2-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-3)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia – TV: CBS

*TV announcers: Greg Gumbel, Trent Green, Evan Washburn

*Keys to the game: It’s pretty transparent that Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt is using the second half of the season as a platform for rookie Zach Mettenberger to prove himself as the team’s long-term answer at the position. Holding a 13-point lead at home on Monday night, Whisenhunt continued to dial up pass after pass, with Mettenberger finishing with 24 attempts while rookie RB Bishop Sankey received just 11 carries.

Granted, the secondary is the clear weakness of the Steelers’ secondary, and the Eagles are coming off a game in which they gave up 367 yards and three touchdowns through the air at Green Bay. But Whisenhunt must also be mindful of his 31st-ranked run defense that watched Le’Veon Bell shove the ball down the Titans’ throat to end the game.

Philadelphia has an NFL-high 25 turnovers and needs to get RB LeSean McCoy (3.7 yards per carry) untracked to help protect pick-prone QB Mark Sanchez.

*Matchup to watch – Titans WR Justin Hunter vs. Eagles CB Bradley Fletcher: Fletcher was targeted 13 times by the Packers, giving up eight completions for 169 yards and two touchdowns. He was nearly benched, but coordinator Bill Davis commended Fletcher’s resolve in the second half. Hunter has just 23 receptions on the season, but is averaging 18.1 yards per catch and is a big-play weapon Mettenberger is developing chemistry with.

*Player spotlight – Eagles TE Zach Ertz: After playing 64.5 percent of the snaps through the first four games, Ertz has played only 41.7 over the past six as coach Chip Kelly has increasingly relied on Brent Celek, who is a superior blocker. But Ertz could see an uptick in playing time after Steelers TE Heath Miller caught all five of his targets for 71 yards Monday.

*Fast facts: The Titans have allowed an average of 28.5 points in losing their past four home games. … McCoy has averaged 111 yards from scrimmage over his past 11 home games.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

Mettenberger has a strong arm Whisenhunt wants to develop, but the lack of establishing the ground game behind an offensive line with a lot of resources poured into it makes it difficult for Tennessee to finish off games. That, and the Eagles have a nine-game home winning streak.

*Our pick: Eagles 30-20

Arizona Cardinals (9-1) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, at CenturyLink Field, Seattle – TV: FOX

*TV announcers: Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch, Pam Oliver

*Keys to the game: The first quarter will be critical to the Cardinals’ game plan. Last week, head coach Bruce Arians came out and aggressively attacked the Lions through the air. Once Arizona had built a 14-point lead, he dialed it back in as QB Drew Stanton threw a pair of interceptions and had a few others narrowly missed by Detroit defenders.

If the Cardinals can build an early lead, expect a replica. But if they fall behind, Stanton could find himself in a whirlwind of oncoming pass rushers while attempting to avoid a meltdown against the Legion of Boom – unless RB Andre Ellington is able to dent a run defense sorely missing DT Brandon Mebane and create medium-range third downs.

Arizona’s run defense was gashed a bit by Detroit, but still enters ranked No. 3 in the league. Seattle owns the top-ranked ground game, so the battle in the trenches could determine the outcome. Can RB Marshawn Lynch get a head of steam without C Max Unger? Can QB Russell Wilson run the read-option efficiently and find some big plays around the edge? Seattle must get that protection, because Arizona should be able to man CBs Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie against the Seahawks’ mediocre wide receivers and throw eight and nine defenders at the ground game.

*Matchup to watch – Cardinals SLB Alex Okafor vs. Seahawks RT Justin Britt: Okafor has 5.0 sacks since entering the starting lineup in Week 6, and Arians said he has narrowly missed several more due to minor technique issues he’s working to correct. Britt has started since Week 1 and held up adequately, but was beaten cleanly several times by Chiefs OLB Justin Houston last week.

*Player spotlight – Seahawks C Lemuel Jeanpierre: Cut with an injury settlement after training camp, Jeanpierre was re-signed Tuesday with Unger out several weeks and Seattle down to its fourth-string option in Patrick Lewis, who was a turnstile against K.C. Jeanpierre has missed 10 weeks, but knows the offense and immediately was thrust into a competition with Lewis to start this week.

*Fast facts: The Cardinals are 9-1 for the second time in team history (1948). … Seahawks CB Richard Sherman has six interceptions in the past five meetings, including four in the past two at home.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

The Seahawks have lost only two home games over the past three years. One was in Week 16 last season to Arizona, a game Arians has pointed to as a turning point for his team. This time it’s the Seahawks who face the proving grounds, and they keep their slim division hopes alive in a hard-fought defensive battle in the din of CenturyLink Field.

*Our pick: Seahawks 23-20

St. Louis Rams (4-6) at San Diego Chargers (6-4)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, at Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego – TV: FOX

*TV announcers: Chris Myers, Ronde Barber, Jennifer Hale

*Keys to the game: With their defense playing lights out over the past month-plus, the Rams made the switch back to veteran QB Shaun Hill last week and the results were immediate in a shocking thumping of the Broncos.

St. Louis is now featuring rookie RB Tre’ Mason, who brings more acceleration to the backfield equation than Benny Cunningham or Zac Stacy. The Rams are content to play the field position game while setting up the occasional vertical shot, and caught Denver napping last week.

Fireworks could be limited on both sides of the ball with Chargers QB Philip Rivers debunking TE Antonio Gates’ assertion that he has been playing through a significant rib injury. What is known is that Rivers has struggled during the Chargers’ 1-3 stretch with shaky line play. That’s a frightening proposition with the Rams dialing up constant pressure across their deep defensive line.

The key for the Chargers — and for Rivers’ health — is to get a strong game out of RB Ryan Matthews, who returned to the lineup last week. The Rams are still allowing 100.8 rushing yards per game, and San Diego must stay out of third-and-longs to sustain drives.

*Matchup to watch – Rams DTs Michael Brocks and Aaron Donald vs. Chargers C Rich Ohrnberger: The Chargers are hoping Ohrnberger can gut it out through back and ankle injuries, but he managed just half of the snaps last week. If he can’t go, rookie OG Chris Watt slides to the middle and becomes responsible for the line calls.

*Player spotlight – Chargers OLB Melvin Ingram: So much for easing back into action after missing nine games due to a hip injury. Ingram played 90 percent of the defensive snaps last week, although he did not apply much pressure on the quarterback.

*Fast facts: After registering just one sack through the first five games, the Rams have 18 over their past five. … The Chargers have converted just seven of 26 third downs over their past two games.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

The Chargers have defeated one team with a winning record all season, and have looked very shaky during a 1-3 stretch. The Rams have beaten three winning teams over the past five weeks and coach Jeff Fisher has his young squad playing hard on both sides of the ball.

*Our pick: Rams 20-16

Miami Dolphins (6-4) at Denver Broncos (7-3)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, at Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver – TV: CBS

*TV announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson

*Keys to the game: Miami doesn’t have a lengthy history of going into cold-weather climates and coming away with victories, but this version of the Dolphins is actually well-suited to compete in temperatures expected to be in the mid-30s.

They enter with the league’s sixth-ranked ground game and a quarterback in Ryan Tannehill whose strength is moving the chains with short to intermediate throws. He isn’t going to stretch the field often — the Dolphins’ longest scoring play of the season is 21 yards and the offense has just nine plays of 30-plus yards — but Tannehill can play keep away from Peyton Manning.

It is important for Tannehill to sustain drives and keep the game close, because Miami boasts a defense that could certainly build on Denver’s recent issues. The Broncos are struggling with a dinged up offensive line and backfield and minus the threat of the ground game, the Dolphins’ stout defensive line could wreak havoc in the backfield. The key for Manning will be his receivers gaining quick separation so Manning can get the ball out of his hands and let his receivers make plays after the catch.

The Broncos’ gameplan could be heavily impacted by the status of TE Julius Thomas (ankle) and WR Emmanuel Sanders (concussion).

*Matchup to watch – Dolphins LT Ja’Wuan James vs. Broncos OLB DeMarcus Ware: James received solid reviews for his first start on Tannehill’s blind side against Buffalo, although he was whipped a few times by Jerry Hughes. Ware enters with 9.0 sacks, and the Dolphins can’t give James too much help with Von Miller (10.0 sacks) attacking the reworked right side of the line.

*Player spotlight – Dolphins CB Jamar Taylor: He’ll likely get his second consecutive start in place of Cortland Finnegan (ankle), and should expected to be tested often playing opposite Brent Grimes.

*Fast facts: The Dolphins are 11th in the NFL in scoring at 24.9 points per game, but rank 30th in red-zone touchdown production (44.9 percent). … Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas has 100-plus receiving yards in seven consecutive games, tied for the second-longest streak in NFL history.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

The Dolphins might be built to drag this game into the fourth quarter, but their lack of big plays and abysmal red zone production are fatal flaws in attempting to knock off an angry Broncos team at home.

*Our pick: Broncos 23-19

Washington Redskins (3-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, at Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif. – TV: FOX

*TV announcers: Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon, Scott Kaplan

*Keys to the game: Amid all the drama QB quarterback Robert Griffin III and his long-term future with the Redskins, RB Alfred Morris is running as well as he has all season in averaging 4.6 yards per carry over the past three games. And that is Washington’s key in threatening the upset. San Francisco allows just 3.9 yards per carry, but the Redskins must keep the game close and keep Morris the focal point of the offense so RGIII is in manageable situations and not at the mercy of the 49ers’ improving pass rush abusing his subpar protection.

The 49ers have also trended back toward a run-first approach the second half of the season. QB Colin Kaepernick has only averaged 213 passing yards the past three weeks, but has also avoid interceptions while San Francisco has veered away from the heavy use of three- and four-receiver sets that were the norm during the first month of the season. However, with the Redskins keyed in on RB Frank Gore, it does set Kaepernick up to test young CBs David Amerson and Bashaud Breeland.

*Matchup to watch – Redskins OLB Ryan Kerrigan vs. 49ers RT Anthony Davis/Jonathan Martin: Davis is going through the league’s concussion protocol, and the play of the o-line has dipped whenever Martin has been forced into the lineup. Kerrigan has 7.5 sacks, but 4.0 of those came in Week 2 against Jacksonville, when the Redskins racked up a franchise-record 10. Washington has just five in its other nine games, and Kerrigan has only one since Week 7.

*Player spotlight – 49ers CB Dontae Johnson: The rookie was thrust into the nickel role against the Giants last week and could be in line for another significant number of snaps with starter Tramaine Brock still recovering from a toe injury.

*Fast facts: RGIII has been sacked 15 times in only 115 drop-backs this season. … 49ers TE Vernon Davis has not had more than two receptions since Week 6 and does not have a touchdown reception since the season opener.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

The Redskins make the cross-country with the quarterback and head coach talking too much to the media and stirring yet more controversy within the organization. On the field, RGIII isn’t as dynamic as in 2012 and hasn’t proven he can move the offense from the pocket, a dangerous combination with the 49ers only getting healthier on defense.

*Our pick: 49ers 27-16

Dallas Cowboys (7-3) at New York Giants (3-7)

Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J. – TV: NBC

*TV announcers: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya

*Keys to the game: DeMarco Murray has been vital in a two-game winning streak for the Cowboys at MetLife Stadium. Following the success of the 49ers, who schemed to run right and away from DE Jason Pierre-Paul last week, Murray could see a heavy workout to open the game.

The Giants were crushed for 350 rushing yards at Seattle two weeks ago, and last week suffered self-inflicted wounds — five Eli Manning interceptions — to spiral to a seven-game losing streak.

Rookie WR Odell Beckham could be the Giants’ best bet out of the losing streak. He had two touchdowns in the first meeting with the Cowboys and has 33 catches for 357 yards in the last three games. Balance remains a struggle. With RB Rashad Jennings off the injury report, New York’s offense is close to full strength for the first time since September.

Dallas has traveled well — the NFL’s only undefeated road team at 4-0 — this season because of a greatly improved run defense. Jennings is the key to any Giants success. They have to run the ball to keep pressure off Manning. The Cowboys are giving up an average of 4.4 yards per carry, but teams have not been able to take advantage of it because the defense is not on the field that much. The Giants need to control the ball with their ground game. The Cowboys rank 12th in the league overall because they have been able to get off the field on third down.

*Matchup to watch – Giants RT James Brewer vs. Cowboys DE Anthony Spencer: Brewer, a fourth-round pick in 2011, has not been in uniform on game day this season. So dire is the situation with Justin Pugh (quadriceps) hurt and Geoff Schwartz only days removed from coming off short-term IR that Brewer is the best option after James Brown was an obvious weak link backing up Pugh last week.

*Player spotlight – Giants TE Larry Donnell: He fumbled twice in the first meeting, but had seven catches for 90 yards in that contest and tight ends have given Dallas fits this season.

*Fast facts: This is the Giants’ first NFC East home game of the season. … Cowboys QB Tony Romo has a 100-plus passer rating in eight of 12 starts against the Giants.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

A week of rest should do the Cowboys right, but the Giants are more dangerous than their record indicates, playing tight for nearly three quarters at Seattle and taking the 49ers down to the final possession.

*Our pick: Cowboys 27-22

Baltimore Ravens (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-6)

Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, at Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans – TV: ESPN

*TV announcers: Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Lisa Salters

*Keys to the game: Saints RB Mark Ingram leads the NFL in rushing since Week 8 with 459 yards and while the Saints will shorten the playbook this week, a physical running game is still a focus. Baltimore’s personnel will make life difficult for Ingram, with DL Haloti Ngata and ILB C.J. Mosley spearheading Baltimore’s stout run defense (84.5 yards per game).

Baltimore catches a break with deep threat rookie WR Brandin Cooks (thumb) on injured reserve. There’s still the quandary of solving Saints TE Jimmy Graham. The key for the Ravens is always ratting the quarterback, and Drew Brees is not on top of his game of late sensing pressure and delivering against blitz looks.

To start, defensive coordinator Dean Pees will pair safety Will Hill and Mosley on Graham and adjust regularly to keep Brees out of a comfort zone.

Even if they fall behind, the Ravens are dedicated to pounding the football to try to control the clock and keep Brees on the sideline. QB Joe Flacco should have ample chances to launch a deep ball or two to WR Torrey Smith, considering the Saints are down to a third-string safety minus Jairus Byrd and Rafael Bush.

*Matchup to watch – Ravens WR Jacoby Jones vs. Saints coverage teams: Jones has a 108-yard kickoff return this season and the New Orleans native had one of his best games as a pro in the Superdome in February 2013, helping the Ravens win Super Bowl XLVII with a long touchdown catch and a kickoff return touchdown. The Saints have not allowed a long return this season.

*Player spotlight – Ravens DE Elvis Dumervil: Dumervil is on a tear with 10.5 sacks and is on pace to tie his career-high of 17 sacks established in 2009. He combines power and speed off the edge. Brees has an ultra-quick release and is the most accurate quarterback in NFL history.

*Fast facts: Ravens WR Steve Smith needs one touchdown to become the sixth active player with 80 in his career. … This is the ninth “Monday Night Football” appearance for Baltimore under coach John Harbaugh and seventh on the road (5-3). The Saints are 11-3 on MNF since Sean Payton was hired.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

The Saints at home in prime time have been a potent beast with Brees at the helm. If the Ravens withstand the initial jolt, Rob Ryan’s defense has too many soft spots to take down the well-balanced Ravens.

*Our pick: Ravens 30-22

–Derek Harper & Jeff Reynolds