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NFL Draft 2015 Notebook: After Winston and Mariota, Who’s No. 3 QB?
A number of often unasked questions to break up the draft monotony
Just over one week to go…
The NFL Draft season seems to be getting longer and longer every year, as does the attention paid to draft storylines. This means the tendency to rehash every little minute detail increases all the more. We’re one week out, and it feels like the draft could have (should have?) been a month ago just to save us from the ever-maddening hype train that is the same couple of discussions over and over and over.
In an effort to break free of the monotony and make sense of more than just the top couple of picks: Here is a collection of draft nuggets and questions that you may not be sick of quite yet.
Who’s the No. 3 QB in the Class?
OK, I’ll admit: Of all these questions, this might be the most main-stream, but I wanted a chance to get my view out there. That view, in short: Baylor’s Bryce Petty is not a viable starting QB in the NFL. Petty has gained some steam in media circles as not only the No. 3 quarterback, but a potential first-rounder. In short, no…just no.
Petty might look the part of a quarterback, but he has all of the spread-QB concerns of Mariota (more so, actually) and does not have the skill set necessary to win matchups on his own. His pocket presence, decision making and mechanics are all red flags for any team willing to spend a pick on him.
In the end, I think we’re over-thinking the position and longtime assumed No. 3 QB Brett Hundley of UCLA should be the guy.
It’s easy to see why the draft complex has looked for reasons to supplant Hundley. He’s still very raw from a pocket quarterbacking perspective and he’s had plenty of time back there. He played in a “pro-style” scheme, but the entire playcalling and rhythm of it seemed to be set up like a crutch. We’re still waiting for him to click, and it might never happen.
Yet, if a team is going to take a chance on a guy with insane size, athleticism and physical tools, Hundley has all of those as well. I’m not 100 percent sold on him being a starter either, but he has a greater chance to be special if (or when) he clears that final hurdle and he doesn’t have 10 more hurdles in the way like Petty, Colorado State’s Garrett Grayson or any of the other passers.
Handley went up against one of the toughest schedules in college football last season, didn’t have a ton of offensive help around him and was still one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He’s not a complete prospect, but I’m betting he’ll have a long NFL career—at worst, as a top backup.
Guys That Could Make the Big Fall Come Draft Day
Speaking of quarterbacks, I’m not convinced either passer gets by No. 3 as the trade market will be hot for whichever quarterback is left and the teams in the Top 5 are highly motivated to trade down a few spots. With quarterbacks (and likely wide receivers and a number of edge rushers) going in the first handful of picks, needs could force a number of top prospects down a bit.
Brandon Scherff (OL Iowa): Though he has a chance to have a Zack Martin-like impact on his new team next season, almost every team is either going to project him as the top guard or around the third-best tackle. At some point in the process, that won’t matter on the board, but teams can often be reluctant to draft an interior lineman so highly.
Landon Collins (S Alabama): Concerns he’s already peaked because of Nick Saban’s NFL-style defense are very real, as are those who aren’t sold on him as a ball-hawk. In the box safeties are valuable, but guys without elite ball skills don’t go in the Top 15 picks. Collins may not even be the top safety off the board because of it.
Breshard Perriman (WR UCF): Every team seemingly wants a close-up look at his staggering athleticism, but this is a perfect example of the draft maxim, “don’t count it twice.” We saw his speed on tape, so it doesn’t really matter that it timed well too—especially when he has questionable route running, separation ability, hands and ball skills. In a deep receiver class, teams might decide Perriman’s athleticism isn’t worth all this hype.
Who is the Top Specialist off the Board?
In what could be considered a down year for kicking and snapping specialists, I don’t have a single draftable grade on any punter or long snapper (though, it’s pretty likely we’ll see a handful of both coming off the board in the sixth and seventh rounds). Even for kickers, there isn’t a whole lot to love, and it’s very unlikely we’ll see any mid-round surprises sure to irk their fantasies.
The top specialist in this draft class is kicker Josh Lambo (Texas A&M). He’s got a big leg and he’s only come to football relatively recently after playing with USA Soccer since he was 15. He’s made big kicks, long kicks and routine kicks and his best football is yet to come. Once he joins with a professional special teams’ coach and is able to focus full-time on his craft, the upside is sky-high.
Best One-Tool Guy in the Late Rounds Is…
As the tight end position has evolved throughout the NFL, we’ve seen more and more guys that play more like big receivers than traditional tight ends not only make a big impact, but become players their teams rely on. Jean Sifrin (TE UMass) is already 27 years old and is extremely raw, meaning he’s likely one-to-two years away from making an impact. At that point, he’ll likely be on a physical decline. Because of all this, he’s unlikely to be drafted until very late on the third day, if at all.
But my goodness can the dude run and catch the football.
A ridiculously natural athlete, it’s fun to watch Sifrin run routes even when he’s not the target at the end of the play. Defenders don’t know what to do with him, and that’s a trend likely to continue in the NFL. Maybe he’s never anything more than a No. 2 tight end, but he should be able to mature into a consistent end zone threat given the right opportunity to grow.
Two Teams Likely To Trade Down—Even Out of the First Round
This is a deep draft, but it is not very top-heavy. Not only is there a drop off in elite-caliber talent after the first couple of picks, but after the first 20 (or so) picks as well. For those scoring at home, that means there’s not even enough first-round talents for the first round. So, it’s likely some of the teams we saw in the playoffs this past season may be looking to drop back—even if that means not picking until the second day of the draft.
New England Patriots: Always a team willing to wheel and deal, the Patriots’ board is usually as unique as they come. They also tend to strike on players they want, so they could just as easily take a no-name player out of Rutgers, but my money is on them moving down a couple of slots. Value will be had at a number of positions, so that should give the Patriots their pick of the litter in terms of trade partners.
Philadelphia Eagles: Though many want them to trade up for Mariota, the Eagles have done so much work in free agency that they might be better served trading for lower picks and future draft capital to round out their roster and control costs.
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