Pay for Potential 

The market for free agent quarterbacks is ugly. With few established QBs available, teams looking to add a veteran signal-caller with any kind of upside will be forced to pay for potential more than productivity.

The Texans have already committed to going that route, planning to bring back Ryan Mallett (two career starts) and plug him into a competition with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Case Keenum. The hope is that Mallett, despite having the least experience of the three, wins the job and gets better as the season progresses.

“We’ll make the right decision and it will probably be a competition,” Houston head coach Bill O’Brien said. “It will be something where guys come in and compete and have to win the job and that’s the way it should be and that’s what we’re looking to do.”

Mallett was drafted by New England in the third round of the 2011 draft. If the Texans are willing to pay for his potential, surely teams will be willing to roll the dice on the quarterbacks taken ahead of him. That logic bodes well for the three former first-round picks from the Class of 2011 who are scheduled to become free agents: Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder.

Locker will draw the most interest of the three. He is an excellent athlete with outstanding mobility and a strong arm. His footwork and mechanics leave something to be desired, but he is making strides in those areas. He also has the most experience of the three, having started 23 games and racked up 4,967 yards (57.5 completion percentage), 27 touchdowns and 22 interceptions. He has also run for 644 yards and five scores.

The issue with Locker is durability. He has never played more than 11 games in a season and was unable to make it even halfway through either of the last two campaigns. Maybe Locker will end up like Matthew Stafford, who was plagued by injuries early in his career but has started every game each of the last four seasons. But teams cannot bank on that and will only add Locker to be part of a quarterback competition, as the over-under on him has to be somewhere around seven games.

Gabbert is in the most trouble of the three. He appears to be this generation’s David Carr, having suffered irreparable damage during his first two seasons in the league, when the Jaguars provided him with no protection and limited weapons. He went from being a top-10 pick in 2011 to being traded for a sixth-round pick in 2014. He spent last season backing up Colin Kaepernick, who was selected 26 picks after Gabbert in 2011.

Nonetheless, Gabbert figures to earn an invite to compete for a backup job somewhere. Teams will want to work with him and see if they can bring out the ability Jacksonville saw in him when it made him a top-10 pick. Gabbert has everything you can ask for physically, but still needs a lot of grooming. Teams with volatile quarterbacks like the Bengals, Bills and Bears could be interested in Gabbert.

In between Locker and Gabbert is Ponder, who was selected by the Vikings at No. 12 overall in one of the most egregious reaches in recent draft history. He is more durable than Locker, but without the arm strength and accuracy. Ponder is far more established than Gabbert, but lacks the raw ability.

Ponder is easy to hate on, as any Vikings fan will tell you, but the fact remains that he has done something neither Locker or Gabbert has done: led a team into the playoffs. He guided the Vikings to the playoffs in 2012 (OK, Adrian Peterson’s 2,000-yard season had something to do with that) while throwing 18 touchdowns against just 12 interceptions.

Ponder is past the point where he will be recruited as a starting quarterback, but you can’t tell me he couldn’t go into Cleveland or New York (Jets) right now and legitimately challenge for the starting position.

All of this is not to sing the praises of Locker, Gabbert and Ponder. On the contrary, each of them has disappointed thus far in their young careers. But the state of the free agent market is such that each of these three men should drew serious interest this offseason, even though teams will be paying for their potential more than anything else.

They may be boom-or-bust prospects, but it’s better than 16 games of Brian Hoyer.

Rice Apologizes to Baltimore, Then Leaves

Ray Rice issued an apology letter on Friday morning via the Baltimore Sun, asking forgiveness from Ravens fans and the city of Baltimore after being caught on video striking his then-fiancée in a hotel elevator last offseason.

“The last seven years that my family and I have spent in Baltimore have by far been the best of our lives,” Rice said in the letter. “From the bottom of my heart, I thank you all for the love and support you’ve shown my family and I throughout my football career. We’ll always be grateful for the love we’ve received from all of our fans and supporters, and for winning a Super Bowl.”

Rice spent the bulk of last season on the NFL exempt/commissioner’s permission list. He was reinstated in November, but was unable to catch on with a new team. His latest public apology could be seen as a last-ditch effort to woo a potential employer before the free agent market opens on March 10, at which point a slew of other veteran running backs will become available.

Before this ordeal, Rice was one of the most dynamic all-purpose backs in the league. But at 28 years old and more than a year removed from football activity, there is a very real chance teams will not consider him worth the massive PR hit they would suffer by signing him.

Rice and his now-wife Janay are moving to New York, where he will work to get his NFL career off life support.

Fairley Found Not Guilty

Speaking of timely announcements, Lions DT Nick Fairley was found not guilty on Friday of driving under the influence at the end of a trial resulting from a 2012 arrest on Memorial Day weekend. Instead, Fairely was found guilty of reckless driving (he was clocked at 100 miles per hour).

What this means for Fairley is a $500 fine instead of a two-game suspension. But his savings could be even greater, given he is less than a month away from hitting the open market as a free agent. It is near impossible for players to attract top dollar when the are slated to begin the following season on suspension.

Fairley is coming off one of his best seasons, but he is considered a risky signing because of his constant struggle to keep his weight in check. He insists his weight issues are behind him, but persuading his next employer of that fact will be no easy trick. When fit and motivated, Fairley is a disruptive pass rusher who can more than hold his own against the run.

Fairley is considered unlikely to return to Detroit, but his status with the team will not be determined until the team figures out whether it can retain fellow free agent DT Ndamukong Suh.

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