College football season is underway, the Bowl Championship Series is out and the new College Football Playoff is in its inaugural season. Four teams will advance beyond the regular season with the hope of being crowned the national champion.  Since I love the movie ‘Dumb and Dumber’ and nothing can make you feel dumber than early-season predictions, let’s do this!

Lloyd Christmas: Life is a fragile thing, Har. One minute you’re chewin’ on a burger, the next minute you’re dead meat.

This section is devoted to teams that have already let their chances of advancing to the first College Football Playoff slip through their hands, for one reason or another.

Ohio State
Coming into the season, the Buckeyes appeared poised to make a national championship run with a Heisman Trophy candidate, Braxton Miller, at quarterback and a head coach, Urban Meyer, who already has two BCS National Championships on his distinguished resume.

Miller, however, will miss the 2014 season after re-injuring his right (throwing) shoulder while throwing the ball in a non-contact, practice drill on Aug. 18.. He had surgery last winter after injuring the shoulder in Ohio State’s loss to Clemson in the Orange Bowl last January.

Ohio State still has a great coach and a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. Defensive linemen Joey Bosa, who has been nearly unblockable through three games, and Michael Bennett anchor a unit that is averaging 10 tackles for loss per contest. Running back Ezekiel Elliott, wide receiver Michael Thomas and tight end Jeff Heuerman (who is battling a foot issue) bring stability to an offense in flux.

J.T. Barrett, who has taken over for Miller and looked solid in games against Navy and Kent State, was just 9-of-29 passing for 219 yard with one touchdown and three interceptions in a loss against Virginia Tech on Sept. 7.

With a loss already on their record, a redshirt freshman quarterback and a Big Ten schedule that lacks many opportunities for signature wins, Ohio State already finds themselves on the outside looking in of the playoff picture.

Michigan State
The Spartans came into the 2014 season off of wins over Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game and Stanford in the Rose Bowl. With 15 starters returning, including quarterback Connor Cook, Michigan State is poised to challenge for another conference crown.

Defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi’s unit lost four players to the NFL, but has plenty of talent coming back, led by defensive end Shilique Calhoun, linebacker Taiwan Jones and safety Kurtis Drummond.

Unfortunately for coach Mark D’Antonio’s team, they came up short in an early-season matchup with Oregon. Considering a relatively weak conference schedule, Michigan State will now have to run the table for any chance of advancing to the first College Football Playoff.

With its two best teams suffering early losses, the Big Ten has likely played itself out of a playoff berth already. I can’t see a one-loss team out of this conference getting in over, say, an Auburn team with one loss that misses out on the Southeastern Conference title game.

Lloyd Christmas: What do you think the chances are of a guy like you and a girl like me… ending up together?
Mary Swanson: Well, Lloyd, that’s difficult to say. I mean, we don’t really…
Lloyd Christmas: Hit me with it! Just give it to me straight! I came a long way just to see you, Mary. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?
Mary Swanson: Not good.
Lloyd Christmas: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?
Mary Swanson: I’d say more like one out of a million.
[pause] Lloyd Christmas: So you’re telling me there’s a chance… YEAH!

I’m not betting on any of these teams sneaking into the playoffs, but crazier things have happened.

BYU
The Cougars have been the darling of the first month of the 2014 college football season. BYU is off to a 3-0 start, including a 41-7 dismantling of Texas, in Austin, on Sept. 6.

Quarterback Taysom Hill (689 yards passing, 356 yards rushing, 10 total TDs) has played his way into Heisman Trophy contention and is clearly the catalyst of what has been one of the best offensive units in the nation so far.

Head coach Bronco Mendenhall’s team, however, would have to go undefeated to even have an outside chance of slipping in to the playoff field. BYU plays just three teams from Power 5 conferences (Texas, Virginia and Cal), all of which figure to finish in the bottom half of their respective conference’s standings.

The likelihood of an undefeated season is marginal and should the Cougars slip up somewhere along the line, all hope will be lost.

North Dakota State
I know, I know. North Dakota State is an FCS school. That hasn’t stopped the Bison from receiving votes in the latest Associated Press poll or from going 5-0 against FBS opponents, while out scoring them 123-69, since the start of the 2010 season.

NDSU is a great story (as evidenced by ESPN’s ‘College Football Gameday’ making stops in Fargo during each of the 2013 and 2014 seasons), but this fairy tale’s happiest ending will be a fourth consecutive FCS title. Not a bad consolation.

The SEC East
Georgia and South Carolina both came into the season with playoff, and national championship, aspirations.

South Carolina’s hopes seemed to be dashed by a season-opening loss to Texas A&M in which the Gamecocks gave up 52 points. Two weeks later, the Gamecocks went on the road and beat Georgia, 38-35.

While those two losses might seem like death sentences, the path to an SEC East title, and a berth in the conference championship game, provides far less resistance than that of its neighbor to the west.

Should either one of these teams navigate the rest of the regular season without another hiccup and find a way to beat whichever contender wins the SEC West in the conference championship game, a playoff berth is guaranteed. Can you see the SEC champ missing the playoffs? Me either…

Neither team has a terrible remaining schedule, outside of dates against Auburn. South Carolina goes to Auburn while Georgia will host the Tigers, so I have to give a give a slight edge to Georgia. Isn’t it amazing what playing in a conference as strong and well respected as the SEC can do for your postseason aspirations?

Lloyd Christmas: We don’t usually pick up hitchhikers. But I’m-a gonna go with my instincts on this one. Saddle up, partner!

I will probably regret having this published on the internet, where it will live forever and shine a light on how little I really know, but here is a dark horse pick for you.

Arkansas
It may seem crazy – ok, it is crazy – but I like this Arkansas football team. Bret Bielema has the coaching chops to create something special in Fayatteville and I believe he is well on his way to doing just that.

The Razorbacks’ coach led Wisconsin to three consecutive Rose Bowl appearances. Yes, I understand that the final appearance was by default, with both Ohio State and Penn State ineligible for postseason play, but still. Arkansas plays a more traditional, run-first offense than the spread attacks that have become increasingly popular over the past decade-plus. While that may seem a bit archaic, it has some advantages.

The running game allows the Hogs to control the clock and keep some of the high-octane offenses (Texas Tech, I’m looking at you) off the field and, therefore, out of the end zone.

Perhaps just as importantly, much like the spread offense in its early years, teams don’t have the personnel to properly scout for an opponent like Arkansas throughout the week. Guys that are used to zone blocking and running the jet sweep (the type of players who have become the norm these days) aren’t the same players who are adept at playing the downhill, smash-mouth style of football that Arkansas runs.

I’m not telling you to take out a second mortgage and put it on the Razorbacks making the playoffs, but looking at the schedules in the SEC West, I can’t see any one of those teams getting through the regular season undefeated. Arkansas has a brutal stretch coming up with Texas A&M, Alabama and Georgia visiting on three consecutive Saturdays but, at least those games are at home. Right?

Yep. I already regret typing this.

Lloyd Christmas: Why you going to the airport? Flying somewhere?
Mary Swanson: How’d you guess?
Lloyd Christmas: I saw your luggage. Then when I noticed the airline ticket, I put two and two together.

These are the obvious (but, in this case, ambiguous) choices. I know a little bit about college football, but I’m not clairvoyant…

Florida State
Head coach Jimbo Fisher has some holes to fill – six FSU players were taken in the 2014 NFL Draft – but there is still a lot of talent in Tallahassee.

You may have heard of Jameis Winston. However quickly the off-field transgressions have piled up for him, the accolades have come in rather quickly as well. You know, like the Heisman Trophy.

But FSU isn’t a one-man show. Wide receiver Rashad Greene, running back Karlos Williams and tight end Nick O’Leary give Winston plenty of support on the offensive side of the ball and we haven’t even mentioned the trio of offensive linemen expected to be taken on the first day of the 2015 NFL Draft. Or the defensive side of the ball, which has few more projected first day picks, are defensive end Mario Edwards and cornerbacks Ronald Darby and P.J. Williams.

Florida State is for real. The Seminoles also play in a watered-down Atlantic Coast Conference, which gives them a relatively good shot at going undefeated. Jameis Winston and company will have a chance to defend their national title.

The Pac-12 Winner
(Do you know what I really like? When a picture hasn’t fully come into shape yet and a writer is willing to tell me that he isn’t totally sure how things are going to shake out. Isn’t that better than some over-stuffed, pompous know-it-all trying to shove his beliefs into your face while acting like they are facts? Well, I hope so…)

After a bit of a down period, this once proud football conference is in the midst of a renaissance. With five teams in the AP Top 25, and three more (Washington, Arizona and Oregon State) trending in that direction, this is a deep, talented conference. I, despite my west coast roots, don’t like the Pac-12 enough to say that it has surpassed the SEC as the best conference in college football.

With that being said, there are some legitimate contenders here. USC is on its way back after sanctions limiting the university’s scholarships left the Trojans too thin to compete with the big boys. USC’s bludgeoning at the hands of Boston College – just one game after beating conference-rival Stanford – showed that it still has some work to do, but Steve Sarkisian’s team can play with anyone.

UCLA was a chic pick to win the conference coming into the season, but the Bruins haven’t played all that well, despite being 3-0, and their Heisman Trophy-candidate quarterback, Brett Hundley, left Saturday’s win over Texas with what appears to be a hyperextended elbow.

Arizona State has injury issues of its own and Stanford, as I already mentioned, lost to USC a couple weeks ago.

As I type this, I’m becoming more and more confident that Oregon, led by the hyper-efficient Marcus Mariota, is the class of this deep conference. I’ll just say it: Oregon is going to the playoffs.

The SEC West
Maybe I’m taking the easy way out here, but keep in mind that, to this point in the season, the SEC West has only one loss. That lone blemish came against another SEC West team when Auburn beat Arkansas. Five teams from this division alone are currently ranked in the AP Top 10. Think about that…

Auburn was very impressive in its season-opening win over Arkansas and lost in the national championship game last year. The Tigers are clearly one of the best teams in the country, but they play in a conference with seven teams in the Associated Press Top 15.

Coach Gus Malzahn’s team has arguably the toughest schedule of all the SEC schools, including match ups with SEC East heavyweights Georgia and South Carolina and a trip to No. 20 Kansas State on Saturday.

LSU is talented, as always, but is adjusting to life without quarterback Zach Mettenberger, who was drafted by the Tennessee Titans. This group will, no doubt, be in contention.

Texas A&M has firepower all over the offensive side of the ball, despite the losses of quarterback Johnny Manziel and wide receiver Mike Evans, both of whom were high draft picks last spring. Sophomore Kenny (Trill – don’t sue me!) Hill has stepped in and played the quarterback position like a seasoned veteran, leading the high-octane offense to a 3-0 start. Can the defense keep the Aggies in the race?

Ole Miss is an up-and-comer, but I don’t see the Rebels having the staying power to run with the big boys for the entire season.

Which brings us to Alabama… What is there to say about Nick Saban’s team, other than that it is the favorite to win the SEC title just about every year? I don’t see this year as any different.

Yes, A.J. McCarron, the quarterback who won three BCS National Championships – two as a starter – has moved on to the NFL, but the overall talent on this squad is unparalleled. The situation under center remains somewhat in flux, but there are very few question marks everywhere else.

I feel a little bit slimy for doing this but, if I have to pick a team from the SEC West, I’m going with Alabama.

So much can happen throughout the college football season that, in reality, this is – and columns like these are – just an educated guess.  Maybe the Big Ten will get two teams into the College Football Playoff and the SEC will get none.  Nah, that’s just dumb.