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Misleading NFL Stats – Where Perception Meets Reality

We explore some statistical truths and false perceptions.

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Numbers and statistics can lead us to believe certain untruths. Especially in the world of sports where numbers often are given special treatment in how we decide or judge players or teams.

That leads us to some of the misleading stats early in the 2015 NFL season were reality doesn’t match the production or statistics leaving us with a false impression on the truth.

Below are some of the number-oriented morsels of false identity for those who crave the delicacy and geek-dom of NFL statistics.

Can’t Blame Eli

Perception – Eli was a culprit in the Giants 1-2 start in 2014.

Reality – The New York Giants have the same record after three games as they did one year ago (1-2). The culprit was easy to identify with all fingers pointing to Eli Manning and his four interceptions during the teams 0-2 start last season. His struggle to avoid turnovers overshadowed any other team deficiencies New York had either offensive or defensively.

This year, Manning has been spotless in the turnover category, protecting the ball like Fort Knox protecting gold. After three games his passer rating is 98.4, compared to 86.4 last year, yet the Giants have the same exact record and more importantly zero interceptions.

Manning is also in some elite company early in the 2015 NFL season. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and (Eli) Manning are the only three starting quarterbacks in the NFL that have yet to throw a single interception. They have combined for 23 touchdowns passes and 233 completions collectively.

 

Not Too Lucky

 

Perception – Andrew Luck is the best young quarterback in the NFL.

Reality – The ‘Poster Boy’ for the most talented young franchise quarterback in the NFL, Andrew Luck, is off to a woeful start this season.

How bad is Luck playing?

Considering he has a lower passer rating (65.1) than San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (71.1) after three games. Kaepernick is at the point in his career where he’ll be looking over his shoulder to see if second-stringer Blaine Gabbert is warming up to replace him with his inability to develop his game.

Luck has simply been off the mark in the fourth year of his career. The extreme precision by the mentioned quarterbacks above (Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning) have been drastically different for the Indianapolis Colts quarterback.

The Colts faced an 0-3 start on Sunday and made the triumphant road comeback against the Tennessee Titans, 35-33, thanks to the play of Luck, but he still threw two interceptions. If the Colts would have failed and adding in his two picks, things would have been a bit intriguing for the former Stanford star.

Luck’s past production leaves him void of the harsh criticism other quarterbacks would receive under the same scenario.

No young quarterback is considered to have more potential and ability than Luck, but without question he is facing an adverse start to the season. If he can’t correct his mistakes it could a long year for the Colts and the last year for current coach Chuck Pagano who is working in the last year of his contract.

 

There’s No Place Like Home

Perception – Being home is safe and sound.

Reality – That might have been the case for Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz, but not so much for eight home teams in the NFL this weekend. Home field advantage equaled a home field disadvantage with eight home teams losing in Week 3.

That’s half the league!

The road warrior winning teams this weekend outscored the home teams by a whopping 230-154 and left two undefeated teams (Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets) with their first losses of the young season.

 

Things Are Always Worse When Starter Goes Down

Perception – The starters are always the best option.

Reality – With star running backs Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy battling injuries this weekend their back-ups stepped up, up and away with fantastic results.

Lynch left in the second quarter against the Chicago Bears with a hamstring injury that limited him to five carries for 14 yards, exiting the game and allowing undrafted rookie Thomas Rawls to make his debut impact performance. Rawls received 16 carries and took them a total of 104 yards while helping the Seattle Seahawks to their first win of the season 26-0 over the Chicago Bears.

The Buffalo Bills were dealt with the same situation with Pro Bowl running back LeSean McCoy dealing with his own hamstring issues. Against the Dolphins, the Bills pounded Miami with the help of their rookie running back Karlos Williams. The former Florida State Seminoles back rushed for 110 yards on 12 carries while McCoy managed only 16 yards on 11 carries.

The third back-up running back, Ryan Mathews, helped lead his team to victory and also reached the century mark like Rawls and Williams. The Philadelphia Eagles were without their high-priced free agent addition DeMarco Murray against the New York Jets, who have one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL.

The circumstances didn’t affect the workhorse mentality of Mathews, who carried the football 25 times against a very stingy Jets defense and gained 108 rushing yards. Mathews filled the void left by the NFL’s 2014 leading rusher (Murray) in a 24-17 road win against the then unbeaten Jets.

Three Pro Bowl running backs replaced by their back-ups and all three rushed for 100-yards.

 

The DeMarco Defection From Dallas

 

Perception – DeMarco Murray is the best running back in football.

Reality – That very well be the case when the 2014 NFL leading rusher was behind the Dallas Cowboys offensive line.  Murray signed with the Philadelphia Eagles in free agency this past March leaving the question – Is it the line or the running back that made the Cowboys the second most productive team running the football in 2014?

Currently the Cowboys rank 16th in the league in rushing.

A combination of running backs share in the duties once held solely by Murray, who carried the football a league leading 392 times and resulted in a 24.5 average per carry per game last year.

Currently the Cowboys leading rusher is Joseph Randle, who is averaging 16 carries per game. He has been very productive and currently ranks ninth in the league in rushing with 203 yards.

Murray, on the other hand has not had any success in the two games with his new Philadelphia team. He has 21 carries for 11 yards and an average yard per carry of 0.5. Prior to his monster 2014 season, Murray never was able to complete a full 16-game schedule healthy.

Bo Marchionte is an NFL writer for Football Insiders and has covered the NFL for over a decade. His background includes being staff for the Texas vs. The Nation All-Star game as a talent evaluator for player personnel along with an internship scouting with the Toronto Argonauts and Winnipeg Blue Bombers for the Canadian Football League. Bo’s draft background includes working for the NFL Draft Bible and currently owns and operates College2Pro.com. He has done radio spots on NBC, Fox Sports and ESPN and their affiliates in different markets around the country. Bo covers the Pittsburgh Steelers and Pittsburgh Panthers along with other colleges in the northeast.

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