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Misleading NFL Stats Through A Quarter Of The Season

The Philadelphia Eagles invested a lot of money this off-season into their running game that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in every category

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Numbers and statistics can lead us to believe certain untruths. Especially in the world of sports where numbers often are given special treatment in how we decide or judge players or teams.

That leads us to some of the misleading stats early in the 2015 NFL season were reality doesn’t match the production or statistics leaving us with a false impression on the truth.

Below are some of the number-oriented morsels of false identity for those who crave the delicacy and geek-dom of NFL statistics.

 

The Chiefs Are Good On Defense

 

Perception – Led by Pro Bowl sack artist Justin Houston many think the Chiefs are a force to be reckoned with defensively.

Reality – The Kansas City Chiefs defense is tied for the worst in the NFL in points allowed (125). They are giving up 31.2 points per game and are off to a lowly 1-3 start to the season.  Yes, Houston gets to the quarterback better than most in the NFL, but the reality is that is not enough as the Chiefs search for answers to the dismal start to the season.

They are all alone in last place (1-3) in the AFC West and have taken the place usually filled by the Oakland Raiders as the bottom dwellers of the division.

 

The ‘Red Rifle’ Is Not Alone

Perception – Andy Dalton is the only quarterback who collapses when the playoff begins.

Reality – Dalton’s scrutiny comes to fruition in the playoffs. It’s where his regular season success has disappeared, leaving him to blame for the woes of a beaten down franchise over the years.

This season Dalton is off a sizzling start with nine touchdown passes and one interception and most importantly an undefeated record (4-0) for his Bengals. It is when the post season begins his game seems to take a step back, but he is not alone in the amount of unsuccessful playoff performances by some of the younger NFL quarterbacks in the NFL.

Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers is 2-4 in his last six playoff games and 2-2 at Lambeau Field since winning the Super Bowl in 2010.  If you take away the Packers 4-0 Cinderella wild-card run to the Lombardi by Rodgers and he is 2-5 overall in the playoffs.  He also was under center when the Packers headed into Lambeau armed with home field advantage and a 15-1 record and promptly lost to the New York Giants.

Atlanta Falcons signal caller Matt Ryan is 1-4 in his playoff career.  Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions is 0-2 entering his seventh season in the Motor City.

Dalton takes more criticism than any other quarterback, yet his results are on par with a lot of others that get a free pass in the same category (Playoff victories).

 

The 1-3 Record Is Better Than It Appears

 Perception – The Jaguars are still one of the worst teams in the NFL.

Reality – They are definitely closer to being one of the worst teams rather than one of the best, but there is hope. Currently the Jaguars rank 18th in total offense and defense which is not exactly the greatest accomplishment but considering their past performances – It’s outstanding!

Offensively Jacksonville finished 31st (2014), 31st (2013), 28th (2012) and 32nd (2011) in the NFL over the previous four years. On the defensive side of the football it has not been much better for the Jaguars. The defense was as high as sixth overall in the league in 2011 before taking a monstrous drop to the bottom of the rankings in total defense. Jacksonville finished 30th (2012), 28th (2013) and 25th (2014).

It may not jump off the paper when viewing the standings and seeing Jacksonville at the bottom but they are improving.

 

The Eagles Were Going To Run The Ball

 

Perception – Signing both DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews via free agency in March, the Philadelphia Eagles were going to force feed the football on the ground.

Reality – The Eagles rank 30th overall in the National Football League is rushing offense. Philadelphia invested $54 million this off-season signing both Murray and Mathews and thus far plenty is left to be desired. The only other team in the league with a worse average per carry than Philadelphia (3.1) is the Detroit Lions at 2.7 yards per carry.

Currently nine running backs alone have more rushing yards than the Eagles have combined as a team (280). The list includes Adrian Peterson (372), Matt Forte (367), Chris Ivory (314), Jamaal Charles (306), Chris Johnson (302), Giovani Bernard (297), Latavius Murray (297), Carlos Hyde (282) and Doug Martin (282).

After four games it is fair to say the off-season additions have been an epic failure.

 

The Broncos Will Win With Offense

 

Perception – With Peyton Manning under center, the success of the Broncos revolves around the offense.

Reality – Manning is more of a game manager at this point as the Denver defense furiously devours opponents. The Denver Broncos are No. 1 overall in total defense and pass defense.  Usually those spots are reserved for Manning and his high-octane passing attack.

That is not the case this season with the offense still searching for a running game and offensive rhythm. The defensive transformation propelled Denver to a perfect 4-0 start and relying heavily on the pass rush abilities of Pro Bowlers DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller.

 

Good Yardage On Defense Doesn’t Always Equate To Success

 

Perception- The Tampa Bay Bucs are 10th in the NFL in total yards allowed, so they must be a good defense.  

Reality- The Bucs have underperformed under Lovie Smith and are still terrible.

Tampa Bay has great players at all three levels of the defense, including Pro Bowler Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David and Alterraun Verner.  Their No. 10 overall ranking is certainly a positive, but the negative is that the Bucs are also ranked 30th in points allowed.

What’s the reason?

Tampa’s opponents are getting a lot of short fields due to the turnovers of quarterback Jameis Winston and they can’t seem to stop the bleeding when their opponents are in the red zone….which is pretty often.

Bo Marchionte is an NFL writer for Football Insiders and has covered the NFL for over a decade. His background includes being staff for the Texas vs. The Nation All-Star game as a talent evaluator for player personnel along with an internship scouting with the Toronto Argonauts and Winnipeg Blue Bombers for the Canadian Football League. Bo’s draft background includes working for the NFL Draft Bible and currently owns and operates College2Pro.com. He has done radio spots on NBC, Fox Sports and ESPN and their affiliates in different markets around the country. Bo covers the Pittsburgh Steelers and Pittsburgh Panthers along with other colleges in the northeast.

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