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Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans Aim to Usurp Reigning Division Champs

The Patriots and Colts have dominated their divisions for the last 10-plus seasons, but the Dolphins and Texans believe their time is now.

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When you talk about divisional dominance, two teams come to mind — the Patriots and the Colts. New England has won 11 of the last 12 AFC East titles, while Indianapolis has claimed nine of the last 12 AFC South championships. No one else comes close to that level of supremacy.

The Patriots and Colts have gotten fat feeding on the bottom-dwellers from Buffalo, New York, Jacksonville and Tennessee. As a result, the regular-season has become nothing but a tune-up on the way to an inevitable home playoff game.

Admit it, when you predict the playoff field before the season begins, you write “Patriots” and “Colts” in ink, while most other predictions need to be penciled in. The Packers are an “ink” team for many people, but Green Bay won just one division title in the six-year stretch from 2005 to 2010.

Is there any chance the Patriots and/or Colts lose their perch atop their respective divisions in 2015? It seems unlikely, with New England coming off its fourth Super Bowl win in the last 14 seasons and the Colts coming off a trip to the AFC Championship Game. However, each team has one contender with legitimate plans of dethroning the king.

In the AFC East, New England’s top threat resides in Miami. The Dolphins are one of the more balanced contenders in the league, with an offense (No. 14) and defense (No. 12) that both rank in the league’s top half.

The Dolphins have a potential franchise QB in Ryan Tannehill, who threw for over 4,000 yards last season while tossing more than twice as many touchdowns as interceptions (27 to 12). They also have a gifted running back in Lamar Miller, who picked up nearly 1,400 yards from scrimmage to go along with nine scores.

There is plenty of talent on defense, as well, led by Pro Bowlers Cameron Wake and Brent Grimes.

GM Dennis Hickey plans to be aggressive this offseason as he looks to close the gap on the Patriots. The team has already released pricey veterans Cortland Finnegan, Brian Hartline, Brandon Gibson and Nate Garner to free up some space under the salary cap. The team is on the lookout for upgrades at offensive tackle, cornerback, wide receiver and linebacker.

“We’re all frustrated about how the season ended,” Hickey said at the recent NFL Combine. “That’s what we’re focused on now, addressing and confronting the reality of where we’re at and figuring out how we can get where we want to be. That’s what we’ve spent the last five or six weeks looking at hard and talking through. We’re working together in a collaborative fashion because the goal is to be better.”

In the AFC South, Indianapolis’ primary rival is the Texans. Houston made a massive jump in the first year of the Bill O’Brien era, improving from a two-win dumpster fire to a 9-7 contender. In fact, outside their two head-to-head meetings the Colts and Texans both posted identical 9-5 records. Unfortunately for Houston, Indianapolis swept the season series (winning by a combined score of 50-38), which put the Colts back in the tournament and kept the Texans home.

The Texans actually enter the offseason with far fewer holes than the reigning AFC South champions. The problem is Houston’s most glaring need — quarterback — is also the most difficult to address. GM Rick Smith hopes to re-sign Ryan Mallett and put him into a competition with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum and Tom Savage. Mallett is a talented prospect and has a long history with O’Brien, but counting on a player who has attempted less than 80 passes in his career is beyond risky.

Whoever takes snaps for the Texans in 2015 will take comfort knowing he can hand the ball to Arian Foster or throw it up to DeAndre Hopkins, two of the most dynamic skill players in the game.

If the Texans can get even solid play from the quarterback position, it is easy to see them challenging for the division title. The rest of the roster is littered with gifted players, headlined by Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt. He is a one-man wrecking crew on defense (and occasionally on offense), although he will get some more help this season if 2014 draftees Jadeveon Clowney and Louis Nix can stay healthy.

But while Watt can carry the Texans to the doorstep, it will take a better quarterback to kick that door down. The Texans believe Mallett is that man and would love to see him and Andrew Luck competing for the AFC South tittle for years to come.

“He knows our system and he knows how we coach,” said O’Brien of Mallett. “I definitely believe there’s a comfort level there. I think he believes in what we’re trying to do in Houston. I think at the same time he’s going to do what’s right for him and hopefully that’s Houston. I’d love to have him back here. [Quarterbacks coach] George Godsey and I have known him for a while and he knows we know how to coach him. He knows our system and he’s comfortable in our system.”

There is no question the Texans and Dolphins are going to compete for playoff spots, as both teams were squarely in the wild-card race until the final weeks of last season. The real question is whether they can overtake the teams that have dominated their respective divisions for the last 10-plus seasons.

The early money is still on New England and Indianapolis to maintain their places atop the pecking order. But when making those playoff predictions for the upcoming season, make sure to write “Patriots” and “Colts” in pencil, not pen, because the Dolphins and Texans are coming.

Will this be a breakthrough season for the Dolphins or Texans? To take part in the discussion, join Michael Lombardo for his weekly NFL Chat on Friday at 2pm EST. But you do not have to wait until then … ask your question now!

Michael Lombardo has spent more than 10 years as a team expert at Scout.com, primarily covering the Chargers, Cardinals and Panthers. He has been published by the NFL Network, Fox Sports and other venues.

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