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Inside the Numbers: 3rd Round NFL WRs Reaching 1,000 Yards
A closer look at the production of receivers drafted in the third round of the NFL Draft.
Going inside the numbers, FootballInsiders.com took an in depth look at receivers selected in the third round of the NFL. The seasonal plateau for the position is reaching 1,000 yards. Many claim that it takes receivers three years to have total control of their craft in the NFL and for others it is much quicker while others never find the right pieces to fit in the puzzle.
Since the 1992 NFL Draft, there have been 101 receivers drafted in the third round. Under the current NFL Draft format these are the last group of players selected before the final day of the draft.
The movement to pass the football has been established in the NFL for a long time now and the trend towards airing it out is still climbing.
How many of these receivers end up becoming legit number one or two targets?
Minus the 2015 rookie group that includes Jaelen Strong, Tyler Lockett, Chris Conley, Sammie Coates and Ty Montgomery, only 16 receivers amongst the entire group have reached the pinnacle of 1,000 yards in a single-season the standard barrier receivers.
Odds are slim the barrier is reached, but for those able to reach the summit usually have long, productive careers. Among the group of heavy hitters includes Terrell Owens, Hines Ward, Antonio Freeman and current Baltimore Ravens receiver Steve Smith. Owens, Ward and Smith may end up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Even the non-elite of the group have still been able to with stand the rigors of the NFL and enjoy long careers.
The NFL Scouting departments are on a current up-swing of finding big production in the third round again. The draft was absent of a receiver reaching 1,000 yards (2004-07) before nailing six in the last seven drafts, minus the latest NFL Draft (2015).
Two teams that stand above all others in terms of finding middle round gems are the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers. Each has combined to have five receivers reach 1,000 yards since 1992. The Steelers lead the Packers by one having Hines Ward, Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders accomplished the feat in a Denver Broncos uniform last season, but none the less he was drafted by Pittsburgh. The Packers struck gold with both Robert Brooks and Antonio Freeman.
The theory that receivers finally gain enough experience to arrive at 1,000 yards always is mentioned occurring around Year 3 in their NFL careers. It is nearly exact for those who have reached the plateau entering the NFL in the third round. For the 16 receivers accomplishing the feat their average seasons played when hitting the mark is 3.15 years of NFL experience.
This incoming rookie class has two guys to watch.
Green Bay’s Ty Montgomery and the Pittsburgh’s Sammie Coates would be early favorites simply due to the success of each teams scouting department. The Packers are never hurting for talented receivers and their cup is always full for talented prospects to emerge when injury or free agency hit the unit. Montgomery arrives in Green Bay surrounded by one of the deepest, most talented groups in the entire NFL.
“He’s a very strong runner, very instinctive, has good quickness, all the things you look for,” said Packers general manager Ted Thompson in regards to their new third round selection. “The key thing is his strength level is better than most (return ability is) always a factor, it wasn’t an overriding factor, but it was a factor in how we ranked them.”
Thompson did not shy away from saying the offense is built around Aaron Rodgers and the team could never have enough talented receivers to plug-and-play.
The selection of Coates to Pittsburgh seemed to be a bit of a surprise (similar to Green Bay) considering the depth and success at the receiver groups. The Steelers’ boast Pro Bowler Antonio Brown along with youngsters Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant, who flashed exceptional potential down the stretch his rookie season.
Steelers’ general manager Kevin Colbert said, “He’s big, he’s fast, he’s strong and he has good hands. People drop balls. Trust me, he has good hands,” referring to the team new offensive weapon.
No one knows which, if any of these receivers will take the next step towards being a star in the NFL, but history has shown that likely one of the five drafted will reach the coveted 1,000 yard mark in a single-season.
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