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How did the AFC East Teams Fare in the Last Three NFL Drafts?
We review the last three NFL Drafts and choose the best pick, worst pick and X Factor for each AFC East team.
NFL executives used to insist it takes three years to properly evaluate a draft class. Unfortunately, that crap doesn’t fly anymore. In today’s NFL, teams realize the best way to build a contender while staying under the salary cap is to get immediate contributions from players on their rookie contracts. With that in mind, we are kicking off a new series examining how every team has done over the last three drafts.
To prevent our evaluations from turning into a novel of biblical lengths, we will focus on three players from each team’s recent draft classes: the best pick, the worst pick and the X Factor. Up first: the AFC East.
BUFFALO BILLS
Best Pick: CB Stephon Gilmore (Round 1, 2012)
Gilmore is one of the league’s most underrated corners (averaging two INTs per season will do that to you), but last season he allowed fewer receptions and yards than Darrelle Revis. Because of that, new head coach Rex Ryan figures to use Gilmore the same way he used Revis in New York, sticking him on the opponent’s top receiver. Gilmore is also a physical defender, which will quickly endear him to his new head coach.
Worst Pick: QB E.J. Manuel (Round 1, 2013)
This was the “drop the mic” pick for former GM Buddy Nix, who led off the 2013 draft by tabbing Manuel as his team’s franchise quarterback before promptly riding off into retirement. The plan has hardly gone as expected, with Manuel losing his starting job last season to journeyman Kyle Orton. Manuel will get another crack at the starting position this offseason, with Orton opting to join Nix in retirement, but he will need to show improved decision-making and accuracy if he hopes to win back the “franchise QB” monicker.
X Factor: LB Kiko Alonso (Round 2, 2013)
Alonso authored a sensational rookie season, finishing with 159 tackles, four interceptions and a forced fumble in 2013. Unfortunately, he missed all of last season with an ACL injury. Can he bounce back and reestablish himself as an impact player? Can he be as effective in Ryan’s complex defense as he was under former defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz? These questions qualify him as Buffalo’s X Factor.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Best Pick: QB Ryan Tannehill (Round 1, 2012)
Tannehill gets bonus points for stabilizing Miami’s quarterback position for the first time since Dan Marino retired. He made significant strides in his third season, topping 4,000 yards for the first time while setting career-highs in completion percentage (66.4), passer rating (92.8) and TD-to-INT ratio (27 to 12). He clicked well with first-year offensive coordinator Bill Lazor and should only get better as he gets more comfortable in Lazor’s offense.
Worst Pick: DE Dion Jordan (Round 1, 2013)
Jordan’s place on this list is a no-brainer. In addition to a pair of suspensions for violating the league’s policy on PEDs, the former No. 3 overall pick has produced little when on the field. He didn’t make his first start until last year’s season finale and has career numbers of just 46 tackles and three sacks. When you give up as much as the Dolphins did to move up for Jordan, you hope for an average of 1.5 sacks per game, not 1.5 sacks per season.
X-Factor: OT Billy Turner (Round 3, 2014)
The Dolphins knew Turner would be a bit of a project when the selected him out of North Dakota State. He was highly impressive last offseason and looked primed to challenge for early playing time, but a turf toe injury unraveled those plans. Now healthy and a little more experienced, he has a chance to be an excellent bookend tackle across from 2014 first-round pick Ja’Wuan James. He has the versatility to push for playing time at guard, as well.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Best Pick: OLB Chandler Jones (First Round, 2012)
Just as Jordan was an easy choice for the “worst pick” list, Jones is an equally obvious selection in the “best pick” category. He’s posted 17.5 sacks over the last two seasons, despite missing six games last year with a hip injury. He also chipped in another sack in New England’s Super Bowl win over Seattle. But Jones is more than just a pass rusher. Head coach Bill Belichick often praises Jones’ versatility, a must-have attribute in the Patriots’ defense.
Worst Pick: WR Aaron Dobson (Second Round, 2013)
Not much has gone right for Dobson early in his career. His rookie season was marred by a broken foot and several dropped passes, while his sophomore campaign ended after less than 60 snaps thanks to a hamstring injury that landed him on injured-reserve. He had a nice stretch of games in the middle of the 2013 season, finishing that campaign with 37 catches for 519 yards and four touchdowns, but his overall performance thus far has been a disappointment.
X Factor: QB Jimmy Garoppolo (Second Round, 2014)
Remember when the Patriots almost benched Tom Brady for Garoppolo after a Week 4 loss in Kansas City? Me neither. Garoppolo was the field in three games last season and finished with some impressive numbers, including a completion percentage of 70.4 and a passer rating of 101.2. It would be interesting to see what he could do with the New England offense if ever given a legitimate opportunity, but more likely, the Patriots will just sit on him for a couple seasons and then flip him for a pair of second-round picks from a quarterback-needy team.
NEW YORK JETS
Best Pick: DT Sheldon Richardson (Round 1, 2013)
Richardson is the best defensive tackle in the NFL. Don’t believe me? Just ask him. The confident Richardson has been a stud from the get-go. His 2014 campaign — which featured 67 tackles, eight sacks, a safety and a forced fumble — was one of the best by any defender in the league. He is an exceptional athlete with a rare combination of power and quickness and should continue his success under New York’s new head coach, former Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles.
Worst Pick: WR Stephen Hill (Round 2, 2012)
This selection is as bad as they get. Hill appeared in 23 games in his first two seasons with the Jets and finished with less than 600 receiving yards and just four touchdowns. He had a penchant for untimely drops and never lived up to his immense potential. He spent last season on Carolina’s practice squad and never earned a call-up to the active roster, despite all the turnover the Panthers endured at the receiver position. The struggle is real.
X Factor: S Calvin Pryor (Round 1, 2014)
Pryor did not play poorly as a rookie, he just didn’t make as many big plays as the team envisioned. He finished with no interceptions, no forced fumbles and just half a sack. Part of that is because he was forced to provide deep coverage to help the team’s struggling cornerbacks, which prevented him from doing what he does best — wreaking havoc in the box. Perhaps the ultra aggressive Bowles, who spent much of his career as a secondary coach, will better utilize Pryor’s physicality, instincts and playmaking ability.
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