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How Did NFC South Teams Fare in the Last Three NFL Drafts?

We examine the best, worst and most intriguing draft picks from each NFC South team.

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NFL executives used to insist it takes three years to properly evaluate a draft class. Unfortunately, that crap doesn’t fly anymore. In today’s NFL, teams realize the best way to build a contender while staying under the salary cap is to get immediate contributions from players on their rookie contracts. With that in mind, we are kicking off a new series examining how every team has done over the last three drafts.  

To prevent our evaluations from turning into a novel of biblical lengths, we will focus on three players from each team’s recent draft classes: the best pick, the worst pick and the X Factor. This week: the NFC South. If you missed our previous pieces, check out the AFC NorthAFC EastAFC SouthAFC WestNFC East and NFC North draft reviews.

Atlanta Falcons

Best Pick: CB Desmond Trufant (First Round, 2013)

Trufant has started all 32 games since being picked by the Falcons, racking up 108 tackles, 33 pass breakups, five interceptions and a forced fumble during that time. A top-10 cornerback last season (according to Pro Football Focus), he should fare even better under new coach Dan Quinn. The Falcons finished last season with the fewest sacks in the NFC, and with the ultra aggressive Quinn promising to crank up the pressure, Trufant should have more opportunities to make plays on the ball.

Worst Pick: OT Lamar Holmes (Third Round, 2012)

Holmes moved into the starting lineup in 2013 and was a complete disaster, allowing 10 sacks and committing 11 penalties. He was off to a little better start last season, with just one sack and one penalty through four games, until a foot injury landed him on injured-reserve. He has been a revolving door at right tackle and will have to show vast improvement to regain his starting spot next season. Quinn has already added a familiar face to the offensive line, former Seahawks OT Jared Smith, and more competition will be provided via the NFL Draft.

X Factor: LT Jake Matthews (First Round, 2014)

Matthews endured some growing pains as a rookie, allowing seven sacks and committing nine penalties, but overall he looked capable of handling the demanding left tackle position. The reason he is listed as an X Factor is because he injured his foot in the season finale against the Panthers and was forced to undergo Lisfranc surgery, which could force him to start training camp on the PUP list. The left tackle position requires power and balance, so if his foot is not 100 percent by the start of next season, the Falcons are in trouble.

Carolina Panthers

Best Pick: LB Luke Kuechly (First Round, 2012)

To call a linebacker a tackling machine is a bit cliche, but when that linebacker posts 473 tackles in just three seasons, the descriptor is certainly appropriate. Kuechly led the league in tackles in two of the last three years while also chipping in six sacks, seven interceptions and a forced fumble. He is a three-down defender with sideline-to-sideline speed and has quickly emerged as the leader of a Panthers defense that is stout when healthy. Plus, he makes a mean commercial.

Worst Pick: OG Edmund Kugbila (Fourth Round, 2013)

Speaking of cliches, one of my favorites is: “A player’s greatest ability is his availability.” By that logic alone, Kugbila was a massive bust. Kugbila missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury and then missed all of last season after undergoing spinal surgery. The Panthers cut ties with him using the waived/injured designation following his latest operation. The Valdosta State product was always going to be a developmental project, but because of his inability to stay on the field, the only thing he was able to develop was a thick medical file.

X Factor: WR Kelvin Benjamin (First Round, 2014)

You have to hand it to the Panthers: they have hit home runs with each of their last three first-round picks (Kuechly, Star Lotulelei and Benjamin). All three players are already proven stars, but we’ll squueze in Benjamin as an X Factor because he still has so much room for improvement. He topped the 1,000-yard barrier as a rookie and scored nine touchdowns, despite playing with a quarterback (Cam Newton) who was injury-riddled and erratic. With Newton aiming for a big 2015 season (his contract year), Benjamin could be the primary beneficiary and improve his numbers by 50 percent, easily.

New Orleans Saints

Best Pick: LT Terron Armstead (Third Round, 2013)

This is how teams hope their developmental picks pan out. Armstead, from Arkansas Pine-Bluff, spent his rookie season learning the ropes before taking over as the starting left tackle in 2014. He started the first 14 games before tapping out to a neck injury that had bothered him for most of the year. He graded out as the league’s No. 17 left tackle according to Pro Football Focus, which is pretty good considering his inexperience and limited health. His neck did not require surgery and he will be healthy and ready to roll in 2015, when he can continue his rapid ascension.

Worst Pick: CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste (Second Round, 2014)

Here’s a fun fact: Saints safety Jairus Byrd had more interceptions during his rookie year (nine) than Jean-Baptiste had “defensive snaps played” (eight). Saints head coach Sean Payton insists this was all part of the plan after Jean-Baptiste started just 13 games at Nebraska, but that doesn’t make it any more excusable. The Saints protected Jean-Baptiste like the Cardinals protected rookie QB Logan Thomas. The difference? Jean-Baptiste was taken in the second round while Thomas was selected in the seventh.

“Of course Stanley Jean-Baptiste, we drafted last year. We like this prospect,” Payton said. “We knew when we drafted him it was going to be a developmental player.”

X Factor: WR Brandin Cooks (First Round, 2014)

Cooks was putting up solid numbers before a thumb injury cut his season short after just 10 games. He finished his rookie campaign 53 catches for 550 yards and three scores. He caught at least five passes in seven of those 10 games and figures to be even more involved in 2015 now that Kenny Stills and Jimmy Graham have been traded away. Cooks, who will be just 21 years old when next season begins, has the speed and elusiveness to be one of the game’s most dangerous big-play threats.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Best Pick: LB Lavonte David (Second Round, 2012)

Mike Evans could make a strong case for this spot, as well, but David’s numbers are too good to ignore. In three seasons with Tampa Bay he has started 46 of a possible 48 games and dominated to the tune of 430 tackles, 10 sacks, six interceptions and six forced fumbles. His snub from this year’s Pro Bowl was one of the most egregious in the history of the league’s annual popularity contest. More importantly, he was one of the few Tampa Bay defenders who did not look completely lost when Lovie Smith switched to his preferred Cover-2 defense.

Worst Pick: S Mark Barron (First Round, 2012)

Barron started out strong as a rookie but his play tailed off as the season progressed, contributing to the team’s No. 32 ranking against the pass. He failed to show much growth from his first to second season, and when Lovie Smith came in with a scheme demanding the safeties play deep and take away half of the field, it was a wrap for Barron. He was traded to the Rams in exchange for fourth- and sixth-round picks, ending a brief and forgettable stint in Tampa Bay.

X Factor: QB Mike Glennon (Third Round, 2013)

The best thing about Josh McCown is he made Glennon look very good by comparison. He saw action in six games in 2014 and finished with a completion percentage of 57.6 and a passer rating of 83.3 (better than Cam Newton and Nick Foles, for what that’s worth). He doesn’t appear to have a future in Tampa Bay with Jameis Winston on his way into town later this month, but perhaps some other QB-needy team (and there are plenty of them) will pry him free from Pirate Town.

“Mike Glennon can be a quarterback that plays at a high level in the league,” Smith said.

Michael Lombardo has spent more than 10 years as a team expert at Scout.com, primarily covering the Chargers, Cardinals and Panthers. He has been published by the NFL Network, Fox Sports and other venues.

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