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Freeze frame: Dolphins built for chilly conditions in Denver
DAVIE, Fla. — The Miami Dolphins (6-4) face one of their biggest tests of the season when they visit the Denver Broncos (7-3) on Sunday, and much of the job will rest on the offense.
Miami has to protect its playoff hopes against Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (30 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 107.1 passer rating, third in NFL) on a day when the high temperature is expected to be about 37 degrees.
Further complicating things is the Dolphins will probably have to score at least 24 points to win, and most likely they’ll need to score around 28 or 30.
The Dolphins’ defense is good, second in total defense (302.5 yards per game) and fourth in points allowed (18.0). They haven’t allowed more than 20 points in the past five games, during which time they’ve gone 4-1.
But the offense has to do its part.
The Dolphins are 11th in scoring (24.9 ppg), but they struggle to score on big plays and in the red zone. Their longest scoring play is 21 yards, and they rank 30th in red zone touchdowns, converting at 44.9 percent.
The Dolphins’ offense has nine plays of 30 or more yards, and none have gone for touchdowns. The Dolphins’ longest rushing touchdown is nine yards.
The defense has scored touchdowns on plays of 81 yards (fumble return) and 50 yards (interception return).
“Certainly if you look at (the Broncos’) offensive production, they might be fifth in the league at scoring, they’re averaging 29-and-a-half points a game,” coach Joe Philbin said. “They’re averaging over 400 yards of offense. They’ve been a very high scoring team for a number of years.
“So you’d think that rationale certainly is one that we would use, but I think you have to be ready to change midstream. Maybe the game is going to unfold in a different fashion than we thought. Certainly, we’re not going to be reckless. But yeah, points are going to be important, each possession is going to be important in this game.”
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 92.2 passer rating, 14th in NFL) doesn’t excel at downfield passing so the deep ball has been practically eliminated from the offensive gameplan.
The Dolphins stick to what Tannehill does best – short and intermediate passes, rollouts, bootlegs and read options.
Tannehill is completing a career-best 65.4 percent of his passes and he has rushed for a career-best 261 yards. He has had a career-best 40-yard carry and two 30-yard carries.
Combine that with the NFL’s sixth-best rushing offense (127.3 yards per game), and, well, you still don’t know if the Dolphins can generate enough points to outscore Manning and his high-powered offense.
SERIES HISTORY: 18th regular-season meeting. Miami leads series, 11-5-1. Denver won the last meeting, 18-15, in overtime in 2011. That was the most memorable recent game, too. Dolphins owner Steve Ross, desperate to sell tickets, planned to honor the 2008 Florida Gators national championship team the day of the game. It just so happened quarterback Tim Tebow had recently overtaken Kyle Orton as the starter. Tebow led the Broncos back from a 15-0 deficit late in the fourth quarter and eventually led the Broncos to an overtime victory.
MEDICAL WATCH:
–LB Jonathan Freeny (hamstring) is out for this week’s game at Denver. This is something to watch because Freeny, injured in the fourth quarter of the Buffalo game, is a core special teams player.
–CB Cortland Finnegan (ankle) didn’t practice Wednesday. At this point he might be unlikely to play this week at Denver. Look for Jamar Taylor to get the start.
–TE Charles Clay (right knee) was limited in Wednesday’s practice but seems to be getting healthier. Clay is essential personnel, and if he can’t excel it slows down the entire offense, which has been the case all season.
–LG Daryn Colledge (back) practiced on a limited basis Wednesday. If he can play, he’ll start. If not, Shelley Smith will start. But the Dolphins are likely hoping Colledge is healthy.
–WR Jarvis Landry (left shoulder) was limited in practice Wednesday due to an ailment he seemed to sustain while catching a pass in Tuesday’s practice.
–QB Ryan Tannehill (shoulder) was on Wednesday’s injury report after being limited in practice. But it doesn’t seem serious. Tannehill has had a passer rating better than 100 in three of his last five games.
–RB Lamar Miller (left shoulder) had full participation in Wednesday’s practice, Miller hinted his ailing shoulder feels much better. That’s important because withy Miller (614 yards, 13th in NFL) the running game is almost nonexistent.
GAMEPLAN: The Dolphins need to score early and often.
And they’ll take the points however they can get them – defense, special teams, offense, whatever. They just need to score and keep scoring.
Defensively, the Dolphins should do well enough against quarterback Peyton Manning. The defense is capable of making big plays, third-down stops, sacks, interceptions and almost every other kind of drive-killing play.
The question is whether the offense can score enough points and keep the chains moving long enough to rattle Denver.
Miami is among the NFL’s lowest-scoring first-quarter teams at 3.0 points per first quarter. If Miami can put some point on the board and then turn the game over to the defense, the Dolphins have a chance.
MATCHUPS TO WATCH
Miami’s pass protection, which has allowed 25 sacks, vs. Denver pass rush, which has recorded 27 sacks, tied for No. 8 in the NFL. If the Broncos’ pass rush, led by LBs Von Miller (10 sacks) and DE DeMarcus Ware (9.0 sacks), gets to QB Ryan Tannehill, it could be a long day for the Dolphins, Tannehill absorbed five sacks last week vs. Buffalo in a 22-9 victory, but it’s doubtful this game would have the same outcome if the Broncos get five sacks. Watch LT Ja’Wuan James and RT Dallas Thomas.
Miami’s pass rush, which has recorded 30 sacks, tied for third in the NFL, vs. Denver’s pass protection, which has only allowed 11 sacks, fewest in the NFL. DEs Cam Wake (8.5 sacks) and Olivier Vernon (5.5 sacks) lead the way for a fierce pass rush. If these guys get pressure on QB Peyton Manning it could force him into a bad decision or two that the DBs can use to their advantage. If they don’t get any pressure on Manning there’s little chance Miami wins.
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