Over the course of both a NFL season, and any individual NFL game, the law of averages usually plays itself out, allowing the cream to rise to the top of the league. But that’s not always the case.

As we’ve seen over the last several years, a fast or slow start to a season can lift or doom a team to their finish. Last week, we looked at fast starts and how teams that start strong can carry momentum into a playoff berth. But that trend works in both directions and now it’s time to look at what a slow start could mean for some contenders.

Over the last 25 years, NFL teams have proven that getting off to a slow start can be a severe detriment. Since 1990, just over 88 percent of NFL teams that began the season 0-2 or worse failed to make the playoffs. It gets even worse from there, as a team that starts the season with three consecutive losses is almost certainly out of the playoff picture already, with just two percent of teams starting 0-3 making the postseason. But it’s amazing what one early win can do for a team’s chances. Teams winning just one of their first three games over that same span have a 25 percent shot of making the playoffs and teams that start 1-3 aren’t in great shape, but 15 percent raises the bar quite a bit from 0-3’s two percent chance.

Last season, 16 teams started the season 1-2 or worse and just two of them, the Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts, made the postseason. The Colts actually were one of seven teams to start 0-2, and the only one of those to make the playoffs. That made them just the 24th out of 205 teams (11.7 percent) that have started 0-2 since 1990 to qualify for the postseason. It was a decent-sized hole Indianapolis put themselves in, but they helped themselves greatly by winning their next game (they actually went on to win the next five) and keeping the odds from getting steeper.

This year there are several contenders that stand an early losing streak away from staring down stacked odds that it would require a long winning streak to overcome. Let’s break them down.

DALLAS COWBOYS

Many pegged the Dallas Cowboys as a mediocre team to start last season, and they backed up those prognostications in Week 1 with an embarrassing loss to the San Francisco 49ers. But a Week 2 win in Tennessee, followed by a 21-point comeback in St. Louis for a Week 3 victory fueled a 6-1 start that set the Cowboys on a path to success that left them perhaps just one catch/non-catch from a trip to the NFC Championship Game. Now Dallas is looking to take their success a few steps further this season, but they face a daunting early road to that goal.

The Cowboys begin their season at home, hosting a tough divisional battle against the Giants. It’s a matchup Dallas is favored in, with their excellent offense set to star against what appears to be a woeful New York defense while the improved Cowboys defense tries to hold off the Giants offense. But anything can happen in these early-season divisional battles and a season-opening loss for Dallas wouldn’t be all that stunning.

The slate gets more difficult in Week 2 as the Cowboys travel north for yet another divisional battle against the rival Eagles in Philadelphia. This is set to be one of the season’s marquee matchups and it’s kind of shocking that it comes so early in the season. The two teams didn’t play each other for the first time until Thanksgiving last year. It’s tough timing for Dallas, who will be without suspended defenders Rolando McClain and Greg Hardy for the first four games of the season. They’ll have to try and keep up with the high-octane Eagles offense without those two, which makes the task even more challenging.

Those first two games put the Cowboys in a precarious position, where they could fall to 0-2 with two losses that wouldn’t even be considered huge upsets. And for both to come in-division would be even more backbreaking, putting them in an immediate hole to repeat as NFC East champions.

Dallas follows that brutal back-to-back with a pair of games against NFC South foes, the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints, two more tests for their shorthanded defense. Then in Week 5 they face the defending champion New England Patriots in Dallas, in a game Tom Brady was scheduled to miss before his suspension was overturned last week. It all makes for a very demanding opening month for the Cowboys, which aims a spotlight on their Week 1 battle with the Giants. A win there would do wonders for keeping them off that list of teams doomed by an early-season slide.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Along with the aforementioned Colts, the Kansas City Chiefs are one of the seven teams that started the 2014 season 0-2, but while Indianapolis quickly pulled out of their early doldrums to make a postseason run anyway, Kansas City never did. A Chiefs team ticketed to rise after a 2013 playoff trip fell short in a division that was again dominated by the Denver Broncos, who they lost to in Week 2, to fall to 0-2.

To avoid falling behind Denver again, the Chiefs will have to sidestep another September that has the potential to deal them a slow start.

Their season begins with a road trip to Houston, where Kansas City’s burgeoning offense will be tested by a Texans defense that could be the best in the league this season. It’s a matchup the Chiefs should win against a Houston team that has some serious problems on offense, but Kansas City did falter in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans last year, so there’s a precedent these Chiefs will have to break early.

Following what should be a physical game in Houston, Kansas City then has to turn right back around and host those division dominating Denver Broncos four days later at Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday Night Football in Week 2. Both teams will be on a short week, so neither will have a distinct advantage and being at home bodes well for the Chiefs, but the Broncos will be a significant challenge with a chance they could fall into similar position as their start put them last year.

After that game, Kansas City gets plenty of time to prepare and they’ll need it as they head up to Green Bay in Week 3 to tackle the Packers on Monday Night Football. The consecutive prime-time battles against title contenders show that the NFL believes in the Chiefs, but they also put Kansas City in prime position to have some early season letdowns if they falter. The fact that they follow those two games with another visit to a playoff contender in Cincinnati to take on the Bengals in Week 4 further complicates the challenge facing the Chiefs. But like Dallas, Kansas City has a chance to get a leg up with a Week 1 win over a one-dimensional team and their ability to do so could make or break the Chiefs.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Last season, the Seattle Seahawks got off to what can be considered — by their standards — a slow start. After an opening night win over the Green Bay Packers, they lost in San Diego and then, after two more wins, dropped to 3-3 with a pair of losses. But the Seahawks finished the season winning 9 of their final 10 regular season games and carried the momentum all the way back to the Super Bowl, lending credence to the phrase “It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish.”

This year, the early-season task is equally daunting for Seattle as they try to hold off the Arizona Cardinals and now the St. Louis Rams. The Seahawks begin the season with a trip to St. Louis to take on those Rams, who tripped them there in Week 7 last year and should be even better this season, while Seattle is dealing with their own issues, particularly on defense where Kam Chancellor’s holdout — once taken lightly — now appears destined to linger into actual games with actual consequences for the team. The Seahawks will be tested by a Rams defense that may be just as good as theirs is now.

Seattle follows that tough divisional matchup with a trip to Green Bay where they’ll face the Packers in a NFC Championship Game rematch. That game will also be complicated by Chancellor’s absence, should it continue. The Seahawks needed every ounce of their team to stop the Green Bay offense nine months ago and they’ll be in a precarious position against the Packers if they’re shorthanded in any way.

The Seahawks get a bit of a break in Week 3, when they head home for their first game of the season at CenturyLink Field against a Chicago Bears team that should be very bad this season, but they can’t take that game for granted either. It’s going to be vital for the Seahawks to take that game, as well as one of their first two to keep pace in a NFC West division that is suddenly one of the league’s most competitive, especially because the Arizona Cardinals have such a light early-season slate. If Seattle slips in the first three weeks, they could fall into an even deeper hole than they did last year.

After those first three games, their NFC North tour gets even tougher in Week 4 when they host the Detroit Lions in an early game that could prove pivotal for both teams in their playoff push.

DETROIT LIONS

The Lions round out their list as the third of the NFC’s six playoff teams last season facing a brutal slate to start the new season. Detroit made just its second postseason appearance since 1999 and first in three years last season, on the strength of a remarkably consistent and resilient season that saw them experience just one losing “streak” a two-gamer in weeks 11 and 12 that they followed with four straight wins to clinch a playoff spot.

But Detroit’s resiliency will be tested early and often in the 2015 campaign. They, like the Seahawks, open things up with back-to-back road games. The season begins for the Lions across the country in San Diego where they’ll battle an improved Chargers team that is likewise gunning for a playoff berth. The Chargers will challenge Detroit’s rebuilt defense in what will be one of the most intriguing matchups of Week 1.

The Lions then head to Minnesota to take on the Vikings in a divisional battle against one of the teams primed to unseat them for playoff position in the NFC. Minnesota improved greatly this offseason through additions, player growth and the return of Adrian Peterson, while Detroit remained mostly stagnant, so an early loss on Minnesota’s home turf could swing momentum in the direction of the Vikings.

If Week’s 1 and 2 are tough for the Lions, weeks 3 and 4 could be considered brutal. After two straight road games, they return to Detroit to host the Denver Broncos in a Sunday night game that could really set them back. Then it’s back out to Seattle for a Week 4 battle with a Seahawks team that may be in a desperate position to get back on track after a slow start of their own.

For the Lions, the season could swing on those first two games against San Diego, because although they are both on the road against good teams, they are also the type of early-season games that a prospective playoff contender has to win to get into the picture.