The best thing about this time of year is every fan is convinced his or her team is about to make a run to the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, 31 fan bases are set to be disappointed.

Rather than wait until the real games start, we’re going to start popping bubbles now. This will be a two-part series in which we examine contenders who will NOT win this season’s Super Bowl. Part I breaks down the list of AFC contenders destined to come up short. All of these contenders share one thing in common: they each won their respective divisions in 2014.

Despite that success, I can assure you these four teams will not win Super Bowl 50.

New England Patriots

There is a long list of reasons why the Patriots will not repeat as Super Bowl champions. First off, repeating is extremely difficult. New England faces a first-place schedule and a full docket of opponents eager to give the champs their best shot. Those factors explain why no team has repeated as Super Bowl champion since the Patriots last accomplished the feat over a decade ago.

There is also the issue of the looming Tom Brady suspension. The Super Bowl MVP has been suspended for the first four games of the season for his role in the “Deflate Gate” scandal, although that number may be reduced if Brady and Commissioner Roger Goodell can reach some sort of settlement. As is stands now, Brady will miss games against the Steelers, Bills, Jaguars and Cowboys.

If the Patriots start 2-2 or 1-3, it may be tough to catch up in the AFC East, where each of New England’s rivals made significant improvements during the offseason. The Dolphins, in particular, a poised to challenge of the division title after an offseason that saw them add Ndamukong Suh, Jordan Cameron, Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are a team on the rise ever since drafting Andrew Luck with the first overall pick in 2012. The team made the playoffs during Luck’s rookie season and each year advances one round further than the season prior. If that trend continues, Indianapolis will be representing the AFC in Super Bowl 50.

Too bad for Colts fans, that ain’t gonna happen.

Indianapolis’ two marquee signings — Andre Johnson (34) and Frank Gore (32) — are clearly past their primes. Also, neither player helps a defense that struggled both against the run (No. 18 in rushing yards per game) and pass (No. 21 in interceptions) in 2014.

Also, there are some contract issues hovering over the horseshoe. Luck and head coach Chuck Pagano are entering the final years of their respective deals.

“These things are ongoing a lot of times behind the scenes,” team owner Jim Irsay said earlier this offseason. “We’re working on contracts, whether it’s management, coaches, players. We had discussions and it doesn’t mean that they won’t continue. It’s not a Super Bowl-or-bust season or anything like that.”

Pittsburgh Steelers

Do you know what Kurt Warner’s Rams, Peyton Manning’s Colts and Drew Brees’ Saints all have in common? They all made themselves at home in a dome. That was a key to the Super Bowl success of each of those teams, who did not have to throttle down on offense when the calendar turned to December and January.

The Steelers will have no such luxury as they look to outscore every opponent on their schedule. There is no questioning Pittsburgh’s talent on offense, as Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown compose the best QB-RB-WR trio in the league. But can Pittsburgh continue to churn out 30-plus points per game down the stretch, when the December schedule calls for home games against the Colts and Broncos and road games against each of their AFC North rivals?

It’s unrealistic to expect the Pittsburgh defense to carry many winning efforts. The unit, which struggled for much of last season, is in worse shape in 2015 after the offseason retirements of Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor. Young players like Ryan Shazier and Bud Dupree give reason for hope, but inexperience and a general lack of depth put a fairly low ceiling on a group no longer under Dick LeBeau’s leadership.

That’s puts enormous pressure on Roethlisberger & Co., not that they are shying away from the challenge.

“We want to be the best offense in the league,” Roethlisberger told Football Insiders. “That’s a goal that Coach [Todd] Haley set out for us and it’s not easy because there’s always a bulls-eye on our chest when you were good last year. We still have the tools to do it, but we have to execute.”

Denver Broncos

After coming up short in Super Bowl XLVIII, the Broncos went all-in last offseason by adding Emmanuel Sanders, DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talin and T.J. Ward. The result? Another one-and-done playoff appearance that has become Manning’s lingering legacy.

This offseason, the Broncos went in the opposite direction, although not by design. A tight salary cap situation forced Denver to say goodbye to key contributors Julius Thomas, Orlando Franklin, Rahim Moore, Nate Irving and Terrance Knighton.

Amazingly, that talent exodus is not the reason Denver will fall short. The reason is Manning, 39, who no longer has the arm strength to lead a cold-weather team on a deep playoff run. The Broncos are well aware of the ongoing decline of the future Hall of Famer, which is why they plan to lean on the running game more than ever.

“Number one, we’re going to have good balance on the offensive side,” executive VP John Elway said recently. “What I can say, late in my career, that was my best friend, the running game. And I think that running game will be Peyton’s best friend also.”

Also working against the Broncos is the fact they play in the extremely competitive AFC West. The Chiefs and Chargers have been nipping at their heels recently — both rivals have posted winning records in each of the last two seasons — while the young Raiders are finally turning the corner.

Add it all up and Denver is more likely to miss the playoffs altogether than it is to make another run to the Super Bowl.

Who will represent the AFC in Super Bowl 50? Talk about it with author Michael Lombardo during his weekly NFL Chat on Friday at 2pm EST. But you don’t have to wait until then … you can ask your question now!