FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — The Atlanta Falcons are 4-7 and firmly in control of first-place in the NFC South.

They have head-to-head wins over the New Orleans Saints (4-7) and the Carolina Panthers (3-7-1) and two wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-9).

The Falcons have a 42.9 percent chance of making the playoffs and need to win four of their remaining five games to virtually clinch a playoff berth, according to the website makeNFLplayoffs.com.

The percentages if the Falcons finish:

5-0, they win the NFC South.

4-1, they have a 95 percent likelihood of winning the division.

3-2, there is still a 64.6 percent probability.

2-3, their chances dwindle to 15.1 percent.

1-4, a .00156 percentage of a chance.

At 0-5, they are guaranteed of missing the playoffs.

The NFC South is a tribute to former commissioner Pete Rozelle and the notion of league wide “parity.” The league’s structure (salary cap and free agency) has fostered this outcome of bad teams being mediocre and falling below the 8-8 standard.

Every NFC South team is three games below .500 or worse – a first in NFL history, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. It’s possible that a 5-11 record will be good enough to win the NFC South.

While a 7-9 record might carry the day in the division this season, the Falcons would have to finish 3-2 to reach that mark.

Atlanta is set to face the Arizona Cardinals (9-2), Green Bay Packers (8-3) and Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4) over their next three games.

The Falcons play at New Orleans, where they have lost three straight, and then end the regular season at home against Carolina.

“Really, at this point, I think it’s simple,” quarterback Matt Ryan said. “We can’t worry about all the other stuff that can happen or what has transpired up until this point. We really have to block that out. We really have to focus on having a great week of practice, making sure across the board we’re as prepared as we can be.”

The Falcons have not been about to piece together enough of a rushing attack in order to give the offense a semblance of balance. The Cleveland Browns held the Falcons’ running backs to 57 yards on 21 carries last week.

Running back Steven Jackson has not been able to power the run game over the past four outings as the team has tried to run the ball.

If the Browns, who were giving up 142.1 yards rushing the game, can shut down the Falcons run game, it’s difficult to believe they will be able to run much against Arizona’s run defense, which gives up 84.5 yards per game and is ranked third in the league.

“We need to be able to throw the ball, and be more efficient throwing the ball against a loaded box,” Falcons coach Mike Smith said.

SERIES HISTORY: The Cardinals lead 15-12. The Cardinals won the previous meeting 27-13 on Oct. 27 last season. The Cardinals also have a historic playoff victory against the Falcons. After the 2008 season, the Cardinals defeated the Falcons 30-24 on their way to their first Super Bowl appearance.

NOTES: WR Roddy White has an ankle injury and did not practice on Wednesday, but is expected to play against Arizona. … CB Robert McClain practiced after he left the Browns game with calf pain. A Falcons spokesman said McClain suffered from cramping during the game. McClain is set to start in place of Robert Alford against the Cardinals. The Falcons said Alford would miss at least two and as many as four weeks after he suffered a fractured wrist during the game at Carolina on Nov. 16. … OT Jonathan Scott (hamstring) returned to practice and was limited. … WR Harry Douglas (foot) did not practice. … DT Paul Soliai did not practice, but for a non injury-related reason.