Organized offseason workouts are officially over and we’ve reached the month-long drag to training camp. But fret not, there is still plenty to discuss about the NFL’s upcoming 2015 season, including who exactly is the odds on favorite to come out on top in each division and which team has the best chance to upset those odds and claim a title.

We’ve chugged through each division in the AFC (East, North, South, West) and we’re halfway through the NFC (East, North). Next up is what was the league’s most closely competitive, but somehow still disappointing, division last season, the NFC South. By winning this division at a stunning 7-8-1 last year, the Carolina Panthers joined the 2010 Seattle Seahawks as just the second team ever to win a division with a losing record in a full season.

History indicates it’s unlikely that another team will win this division with a losing record, but with three deeply flawed teams bunched at the top, including the NFL’s two worst defenses last year, there’s at least a chance. In fact when betting opened, Vegas had the three teams at the top at even odds. Carolina has since pulled ahead as a very slight favorite to win for the third straight year, but the Saints and Falcons are about as close as they can be.

So who’s likely to emerge as 2015 NFC South Champion? Let’s take a look.

FAVORITE
Carolina Panthers 9:5 (Opened 9:5)

Last season, the Panthers became the first team since the establishment of the NFC South as part of NFL expansion and divisional realignment in 2002, to repeat as champion of the division. That’s a bit shocking given how good the Saints and Falcons have been over the last several years, but the teams simply traded the crown over that time, so Carolina enters the 2015 campaign looking to establish a level of dominance previously unseen in the South.

To do so, the Panthers will be counting on some internal improvements and for the rest of the teams in their division to continue to struggle, because they didn’t do much this offseason to improve their own roster. The moves they did make were about securing the future, and the biggest commitment they made was signing quarterback Cam Newton to a lucrative extension. Now they’ll need Newton to hold up his end of the deal and continue making progress as a passer. The Carolina quarterback arguably took a step back last season, reverting to a sub 60 percent completion rate and posting his worst touchdown to interception ratio (18-12) since his rookie year. With his running numbers seemingly ticking down annually, as is to be expected, the Panthers simply need more out of him as a passer.

He should be aided by the continued development of No. 1 wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin after a rookie season that, while it was strong, didn’t quite meet the hype surrounding Benjamin entering the season. The Panthers made sure to keep Benjamin well complemented by retaining veteran tight end Greg Olsen, who had more catches and an identical yardage total to the rookie receiver last season. Now they’re hoping to strengthen that stable with the addition of rookie second round pick Devin Funchess out of Michigan. If Funchess can make a quick adjustment, Newton could have a field day with his trio of targets.

But the Panthers will have to keep Newton upright if he’s to have success finding those receivers. Last year, the Panthers ranked 27th in pass protection according to Pro Football Focus, and as a result, the Carolina quarterback was sacked 38 times, tied for eighth highest total in the league. His 12 fumbles, many coming off those sacks, were tied for second most in the league. It’s arguable whether Carolina actually got better as it relates to protecting him. They released the weak link of that line, left tackle Byron Bell, but replaced him with another disappointing bookend Michael Oher, who graded out only slightly better than Bell last season. One way Carolina could help Newton is by running the ball well, and after releasing DeAngelo Williams, they’re hoping to finally have Jonathan Stewart healthy enough to spearhead the running back rotation.

Though the offense has the promise to be potent, defense is where the Panthers are at their best and they’re counting on continuity to keep it that way in 2015. Carolina returns both their front four and entire defensive backfield from last season’s squad, which ranked just outside the Top 10 in the league. The loss of Greg Hardy was a major setback up front, but Carolina had a cast of characters step up to help fill the void, and they’re hoping for a lot more of what they saw late in the season from rookie end Kony Ealy in his second season. The linebacking corps is where the Panthers should be significantly better next season, with the return of team captain Thomas Davis from yet another ACL tear. In the middle Luke Kuechly remains one of the league’s most elite defensive players and if rookie Shaq Thompson can meet his potential this could be the league’s best linebacking corps in short order. On the backend, Tre Boston and Roman Harper have formed a solid safety tandem and the emergence of 2014 fifth round pick Bene Benwikere as one of the league’s best cover corners last season has Carolina excited about the potential of their secondary.

If everything comes together for the Panthers, who are just a year removed from a dominant 12-4 campaign that had Carolina thinking about a future full of deep playoff runs led by Newton, they could be in for a bounce back campaign. However, for a team that finished sub .500 last season, the Panthers were surprisingly inactive for the second straight offseason. It made some sense after their excellent 2013 season to count on continuity, but it backfired on them last year. Now there’s a decent chance they regret their inactivity this time around because the Saints and Falcons have reloaded after being ranked as the two worst defenses in the league last season, and they’re both coming for Carolina’s crown.

BEST CHANCE TO CHALLENGE
New Orleans Saints 7:4 (Opened 9:5)

That’s particularly true in New Orleans, where after a second losing season in three years — and first under head coach Sean Payton since the early years of his reign in New Orleans — the Saints made some significant changes this offseason, trying to retool themselves and remain in the hunt.

As long as Drew Brees is the team’s quarterback, the Saints can be expected to linger at least on the fringe of contention. The trade of tight end Jimmy Graham early this offseason did signal an intention to somewhat alter course in New Orleans. However, that course remains centered around Brees and part of the franchise’s new directive is to protect their franchise quarterback and extend his career. That’s why they not only obtained center Max Unger from Seattle in the Graham trade, but used their first pick in the draft on tackle Andrus Peat. Those two players should significantly strengthen the Saints offensive line, particularly in pass protection, where they ranked 20th last season according to Pro Football Focus.

New Orleans will certainly miss Graham’s production, but they believe by balancing the offense, they can still have success, and their offseason plan was designed to allow them to run the ball much more in 2015. After Mark Ingram had somewhat of a breakout finish to the 2014 campaign, the expectation was that he’d be headed elsewhere, but instead the Saints re-signed him and doubled down on their commitment to the ground game by also signing C.J. Spiller. Those two, plus the addition of Unger, one of the game’s premier run blockers, should give NOLA one the league’s most potent ground attacks. Brees still has his weapons in the passing game as well, despite the departure of Graham. Brandin Cooks was emerging a star target before a hand injury ended his season, and he will be back at full strength alongside the consistently reliable Marques Colston, who is back for a 10th season with the Saints.

The offense should continue to thrive in New Orleans, but the success of the Saints in 2015 will come down to the strides they can make on defense. New Orleans ranked 31st in the league last season in years allowed per game, with only Atlanta below them and the Saints made significant changes aimed at upgrading their defense. Chief among those were the signing of free agent cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Kyle Wilson to upgrade a secondary that was the league’s second worst in pass coverage last season according to PFF.

The Saints also improved their linebacking corps with a trade for Miami’s Dannell Ellerbe and the draft selection of Stephone Anthony for the inside, and the signing of Anthony Spencer to team with one of the best pass rushers in the league last year, Junior Galette on the outside. The Saints are also counting on the return of several key defensive players from injury, including free safety Jairus Byrd, who missed 12 games last season, and defensive tackle Brodrick Bunkley, who missed the final five, to upgrade the back and front ends of the defense respectively. But it may take some time for all the new additions to gel and that’s a luxury the Saints don’t necessarily have in a division with three strong contenders.

THE OTHER GUYS
Atlanta Falcons 2:1 (Opened 9:5)

The Saints weren’t the only former NFC South powerhouse going back to the drawing board this offseason. While New Orleans had their old regime making a roster makeover, Atlanta’s most significant addition was a leadership change.

The arrival of a defensive-minded new coach in Dan Quinn, who comes over after two incredibly successful seasons as the defensive coordinator in Seattle, has signaled a new way of doing things in the dirty south. For years the Falcons have been known as an offense first operation, led by quarterback Matt Ryan and his vaunted receiving corps. Atlanta will certainly still rely on that offense to put points on the board, but Quinn quickly put his fingerprints all over the team’s defense, which ranked dead last in the league last year. The Falcons made some significant changes to that group, hoping to spark a huge turnaround after back-to-back disappointing seasons in Atlanta.

As free agency began, the Falcons significantly upgraded their linebacking corps with the additions of Justin Durant and Brooks Reed. Those two add to a defense that has the building blocks of core strength up the middle with tackles Ra’Shede Hageman and Paul Soliai and middle linebacker Paul Worrilow. To improve the team on the outside, Quinn and the Atlanta front office took a chance they hope will pay big dividends, signing defensive end Adrian Clayborn, who is coming off a string of a disappointing seasons in Tampa Bay. In Atlanta, Clayborn will be reunited with coaches Raheem Morris and Bryan Cox, who coaxed him to a breakout rookie season in 2011 before he fell off the map in subsequent years. Clayborn will team with Kroy Biermann to set the edge for Atlanta, but the biggest impact on the team’s revamped pass rush is likely to come from first round pick Vic Beasley, arguably the most talented pass rusher in the draft. If the Falcons get get some pressure on the quarterback it will only help a secondary that has elite talent, led by cornerback Desmond Trufant.

Offensively, Atlanta has all the weapons to continue to be dynamic. Julio Jones had an incredible campaign in 2014, firmly establishing himself as one of the league’s best receivers. Though his age is starting to show in the form of lingering injuries, Roddy White was a solid second option when healthy and the Falcons can only hope for more of that this season. The team also replaced third option Harry Douglas with a younger version of the same player in Leonard Hankerson, strengthening the depth of their receiving group and added Jacob Tamme as a potentially lethal red zone target at tight end.

However, the Falcons offense has been held back the last few seasons by a lack of balance and that has not been due to an absence of talent at the running back position, but instead to a lack of productivity from the team’s offensive line. It will be more of the same for the trio of Devonta Freeman, Antone Smith and rookie Tevin Coleman if they don’t get better blocking in front of them than the backs that came before. The team hopes the change to a zone blocking scheme along will help. They’ll also welcome back center Joe Hawley from an ACL injury, and the addition of guard Chris Chester as well continued improvement and continuity amongst younger players Jake Matthews, Ryan Schraeder and James Stone could lead to improved production. However, the lack of talent for the Falcons up front is a cause for alarm, and it could hold up the progress of the Atlanta offense.

Fortunately for the Falcons, they have enough talent on offensive to survive amid those concerns and if the defense can be significantly improved in the first year under Quinn, as it looks to be, they don’t have a long way to go to catch Carolina. Atlanta is counting on that. With so much of their core in place, specifically on offense, the Falcons don’t have the luxury of time to rebuild under a new regime. Instead, they’ve attempted to retool quickly with an eye on competing immediately. It’s a gamble, but one they don’t have much of a choice but to take.

DON’T TAKE THESE ODDS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10:1 (Opened 12:1)

Coming off a season as the league’s worst team, even 10:1 odds seem generous for the Buccaneers to compete at the top of the NFC South in 2015. Perhaps the odds are that good due to the significant flaws in the plans of the three teams above them.

But the faults of those teams pale in comparison to those in Tampa.

You can see the framework for a strong offense in Tampa, mostly reflected in the play of Mike Evans, who was one of the NFL’s best receivers last season despite dealing with arguably the league’s worst quarterback situation as a rookie. Evans has the talent to be the best receiver in the game before too long and he and Vincent Jackson give quarterback Jameis Winston two significant weapons. But it’s hard to have high expectations for Winston in Year 1, particularly behind what was one of the league’s worst pass blocking offensive lines last season and with a suspect running game. The o-line will have some different pieces this season, but with rookies projected to start at right guard and one of the tackle spots, instant improvement isn’t likely.

On defense, the Bucs have continued collecting pieces this offseason, but remain without many impact talents beyond defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and linebacker Lavonte David. Defensive tackle Akeem Spence was one of the worst linemen in the league last season and though adding defensive end George Johnson from Detroit could help, it remains to be seen how much of his success last year was a product of opportunity as a complementary piece of the league’s best defensive line, and how he responds to his new role having never started a game in his NFL career. New linebacker Bruce Carter finished with a flourish in Dallas last year, but at the end of an up and down stint with the team, the Cowboys let him walk and it’s hard to know what to expect from him either. On the backend, cornerback Alterraun Verner was excellent last season, his first with the Bucs, but he still doesn’t have much help back there. Particularly at safety, where Tampa Bay simply replaced one bad player, Dashon Goldson, with another in Chris Conte.

All told, expect to see some flashes of excellence in certain Bucs players this season, but as a group this squad still has a long way to go to even come close to competing with the three teams above them.

TAKE THESE ODDS
New Orleans Saints 7:4 (Opened 9:5)

Each of the top three teams in the division has a roster that is both talented and flawed, and the competition to see which squad’s ability can best overcome their faults should make for an interesting three-team race in the NFC South.

There’s no real shame taking any of those three teams to win, as it’s easy to see any of them emerging and the odds are so close together that it’s a virtual push. But the bet here is on Sean Payton, Drew Brees and the Saints. Last season was an abysmal campaign for the club and they still managed to finish 7-9, within a Week 16 win over Atlanta of winning the thing.

Between the changes to their offensive line, the renewed commitment to their running game and the improvements to their defense, New Orleans has certainly put in the effort to produce a bounce back from last season, and that should be good enough to win the South this season.