After winning the division for four seasons in a row and one Super Bowl appearance, head coach John Fox was rewarded with his walking papers.  Sticking to what he’s comfortable with, team executive vice president John Elway, promptly filled the vacancy with former Houston Texans head coach Gary Kubiak. The two have history going back to their playing days, when Kubiak served as Elway’s back up in Denver, and later his offensive coordinator during back-to-back Super Bowl victories.

For Denver, this off-season is a mystery of sorts, the Broncos tow the line between reloading and rebuilding. Lucky for them with their talented defense, the likelihood is they just reload. The wild card to their immediate future is quarterback Peyton Manning’s decision to resume his playing career or hang up his cleats for good. That decision will impact the franchise in many ways, especially how the Broncos handle free agency and the draft. This past season saw plenty of good and plenty of reason to stay optimistic about their prospects of continuing their winning ways. Let’s take a look at the year in review and assess their off-season direction.

What Went Right

Denver won their division again, continuing their stronghold of the AFC West. Their offense and defense were among the best in football, which shouldn’t come as a surprise when considering the amount of talent they have. On defense, the return of Von Miller from injury and the acquisition of DeMarcus Ware provided the Broncos with a feared pass rush tandem. At weak-side linebacker, Brandon Marshall had a huge year leading them in tackles despite missing two games, giving the Broncos an every down backer who can play against the pass as well as the run, where he led the team in tackles for loss. Three members of their secondary were picked for the Pro-Bowl; for Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward that achievement could be expected considering the lengths the Broncos went to acquire them. For former undrafted free agent Chris Harris Jr. it was a testament to how impressive his rise has been. His ascension into prominence is a feel good story and the type of player any team can’t have enough of. Working his way back from an ACL tear, Harris earned himself Pro-Bowl accolades and a shiny new contract, earning every bit of his hefty compensation.

Denver’s passing game was as potent as ever with two receivers breaking 1,400 yards on the season. Emmanuel Sanders has been a great addition, offering a different element to the passing game and one whose versatility will prove useful for life in the slot after Wes Welker. Running back C.J. Anderson burst onto the scene because of injury, grabbing hold of the position and leading the NFL in rushing over the final 6 weeks of the regular season. Anderson provided the Broncos with a back who could run with power and keep the chains moving, helping the offense stay in rhythm when Peyton Manning began to struggle with the velocity of his passes as the season wore on.

What Went Wrong

Going one and done this postseason definitely had a ripple effect on the franchise but before the season got to that point there were some facets of the team that weren’t up to par. Despite featuring one of the best offenses in the league, the Broncos had their fair share of struggles offensively. While they were good enough to allow Peyton Manning enough time to lead the league’s 4^th ranked passing offense and provided enough push to spark the 15^th ranked rush offense, the offensive line was inconsistent. The musical chairs the team played heading into the season with moving right tackle Orlando Franklin to left guard, while playing others in positions they were uncomfortable with as well, the line never built the needed continuity to be consistent. While Manning is great at reading defenses and getting rid of the ball quickly, he took more hits than he should have which led to him playing through injury to finish the year. Whether it was from the accumulation of hits or age catching up to him, Manning’s arm strength deteriorated as the season progressed and ultimately effected the offense without the threat of stretching the defense vertically. This led to the Broncos being easier to defend during the playoffs.

Impending Free Agents

Unrestricted:

Demaryius Thomas, wide receiver

Wes Welker, wide receiver

Jacob Tamme, tight end

Terrance Knighton, defensive tackle

Rahim Moore, safety

Orlando Franklin, guard/tackle

Nate Irving, linebacker

Quinton Carter, safety

Virgil Green, tight end

Julius Thomas, tight end

Will Montgomery, center

Mitch Unrein, defensive tackle

Restricted:

Tony Carter, cornerback

Brandon Marshall, linebacker

Steven Johnson, linebacker

Aaron Brewer, long snapper

Paul Cornick, offensive tackle

The Broncos have a good amount of cap space available to them but the amount of quality free agents they have hitting the open market will prove to be a challenge for them to retain. Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas will be prime targets at their respective positions on the open market, and the Broncos need to come up with a creative strategy to keep both of them around long term; Especially if they hope to get Peyton Manning to return for another year under center. Denver’s best bet to keeping both of them is by utilizing the franchise tag on Demaryius Thomas and then engaging in contract talks with Julius Thomas as soon as possible.

Outside linebacker Brandon Marshall is an emerging talent who needs to be tendered immediately and extended before his demand on the open market next off-season rises after another productive year. Another priority should be retaining defensive tackle Terrance Knighton, who is an integral part of their 2^nd ranked run defense. Knighton delivers a skill set that isn’t easy to find; he is an upper echelon level run defender who can take on double teams and keep linemen off his linebackers. His ability to anchor the run defense allows the Broncos to be multiple in their defenses allowing their edge pushers to concentrate on chasing the QB.

Other priorities are offensive linemen Orlando Franklin and safety Rahim Moore who are starters for the Broncos and are players Denver can certainly do worst than at their positions. Wes Welker has been a steady presence in the slot for his entire career but injuries and age are finally catching up with him. There are people who feel he should retire due to his multiple head injuries and while Welker is probably too stubborn to succumb to that sentiment, Denver will probably aid in that transition by not expressing interest in bringing him back for another year. Tight ends Virgil Green and Jacob Tamme are low cost players who will probably become more imperative signings should Thomas depart in free agency. Tamme is getting up there in years and could stand to be replaced with someone younger while Green is a great blocker but despite his elite physical talents has never developed into a presence in the passing game. Will Montgomery was a decent stop gap at center but with the amount of inconsistency on the line, the Broncos could stand to upgrade. Nate Irving is still young and should be brought back for depth if it can be done for the right price.

Needs Analysis

The Broncos are a team that is stocked with talent, hence them not needing much if anything to be contenders once again in the AFC. If anything, Denver needs to figure out a way to retain their top tier talent that is hitting the open market this offseason before thinking of ways to get better. They need to keep from getting worse before they can think about building on what they have in place. If they can figure out a way to keep their talent in place and not create more needs for themselves, the Broncos then need to address their offensive line. If Manning does indeed return for another year under center, he can’t take the hits he endured this past season; everyone not named Ryan Clady should be up for evaluation. With the expected departure of Wes Welker, the Broncos will need to add to the receiving core for depth purposes. On defense, the middle linebacker position needs major upgrades and despite the elite pass rush tandem of Ware and Miller, the Broncos can stand to add to that rotation. Even if Peyton Manning does return for another year, the Broncos do need to assess if Brock Osweiler is their QB of the future or not. If not, they need to start planning for life after Manning sooner rather then later if they wish to not fall back to mediocrity.

Overview

Currently the Broncos are navigating murky waters, going through a transition period breaking into their new coaching staff; Manning’s decision is the biggest key to the Broncos off-season. With his decision coming in the next few weeks, the Broncos should have a clear picture as to what their next steps are once that domino falls into place. All signals point to Manning returning for one more season, and if that is indeed the case then the Broncos will be reloading for another run. Lucky for Denver, the man in charge in Mile High has done a pretty good job the past couple of years bringing in talent to build up the roster. With John Elway still in place, look for the Broncos future to continue to be in good hands.