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5 Teams That Could Go Against the Grain in the NFL Draft
Draft boards are guarded closer than vital government information. We explore some intriguing decisions that loom on draft day.
We think we know everything.
We know nothing.
The NFL Draft is such an inexact science that anyone—fans, media, team employees, etc—who think they know what will happen are always wrong. We can talk about what should happen or what might happen, but anything in absolutely is foolishness until the pick is actually made.
Sometimes, the best thing to know is that we don’t know.
Because of that, it’s important to identify trends that might be “too good to be true” or “make too much sense to actually happen.” In those instances, what might actually be happening is group think in the fan base or among draft media. While “everyone” may have a certain player or position as a team’s pick, there’s little chance the people actually making the decision care in the slightest.
In fact, even if a team is targeting a certain player or position and the media or fans are right, one slip of the draft board can completely change the plans.
We know nothing.
Here are five teams that could completely shock just about everyone at the end of the month in Chicago.
St. Louis Rams (Pick No. 10)
The Rams have doubled down on a fantastic defensive line that should drive their success next season and they’ve also brought in quarterback Nick Foles from Philadelphia, who may not be better than Sam Bradford but is certainly more of a safe bet. Because of this and some other roster movement, it’s been assumed they’ll be going either defensive back seven or offensive line.
Yet, the Rams could be a logical trading piece for a lot of reasons depending on how the board falls. If they end up with a shot at the last top tier pass rusher, wide receiver or quarterback, other teams may pay a king’s ransom to move up.
Then again, what if the Rams go there themselves.
With all of those positional groupings, the Rams could shock the world. They could easily bring in quarterbacks Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston and end either’s unlikely fall. They could also grab a receiver like Amari Cooper or DeVante Parker and be awfully happy with it.
Then, there’s pass rusher.
If someone like Vic Beasley or Randy Gregory appeals to the Rams, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Head Coach Jeff Fisher head to that well to further strengthen the biggest strength of the team. It’s not a need. I know. That’s the point, but Fisher and Co. have shown the willingness to overstock positions before and could easily find ways to utilize an extra pass rusher for 20 or more snaps a game while still using defensive ends Chris Long and Robert Quinn to their fullest.
Carolina Panthers (Pick No. 25)
The Panthers and general manager Dave Gettleman have stayed the course.
When Gettleman arrived from the New York Giants, he set out on a multi-year plan that was meant to clear out cap space, jettison aging, redundant and ineffective players and then build a long-term contender through the draft. The only problem with Gettleman’s plan is that the Panthers made the playoffs with players Gettleman knew he was going to cut. Then, the next year, they did it again.
The Panthers have gaping holes all over their roster, but they’ve never been interested in pigeonholing themselves to take the position of most need just to stabilize their weakest position. Instead, they’ve been building a fantastic young defense that was even able to withstand the loss of Greg Hardy last season.
This year, many people assume the Panthers will either replace Greg Hardy or go offensive line, but one thing I can almost certainly promise you is that Gettleman will head into draft weekend with an open mind.
Other than the quarterback position, the Panthers could go anywhere in Round 1, and I would not be surprised to see them end up with a defensive tackle like Danny Shelton, a wide receiver like Dorial Green-Beckham or even a running back like Todd Gurley.
Jacksonville Jaguars (Pick No. 3)
Maybe Dante Fowler will be shocked if the Jaguars don’t take him, but no one else should be.
The Jaguars are sitting right behind the first lynchpin of the draft—the Tennessee Titans. Assuming the Tampa Bay Buccaneers go quarterback, the Titans can send upheaval through the entire first round (and especially the Top 15 picks) depending on whether teams think they’ll be going with USC defensive tackle Leonard Williams, one of the top pass rushers or even the No. 2 quarterback.
Yet, even if Winston and Williams go 1-2 like so many think, it’s possible the Jaguars still go elsewhere.
Clemson’s Vic Beasley and Missouri’s Shane Ray are both fantastic pass rushers that go toe-to-toe with Fowler in almost any measurement or metric and both will be fantastic at what the Jaguars need—getting to the opposing passer. While just about everyone and their brother might believe Fowler is that top defensive end, the Jaguars proved last year that they can keep their draft board awfully close to the vest as just about no one had them taking Blake Bortles at the point last year.
Atlanta Falcons (Pick No. 8)
The Falcons need a pass rusher.
Yet, at the No. 8 pick, it’s possible two or three top pass rushers could already be off the board and they may remove Gregory because of off-the-field concerns. So, does one go to the fourth or fifth player at a certain position (after only seven picks), or do they go find another well?
For the Falcons, a lot of emphasis is being placed on the arrival of head coach Dan Quinn and the assumption that he’ll want to build a defense like his former team the Seattle Seahawks. This is true, though that may have nothing to do with the first pick in the first year of his tenure. In fact, many coaches do the opposite—trusting their acumen can improve one side of the ball and over investing on the other.
The Falcons have talent holes or aging players at a number of positions where they could get the first or second player off the board at that positions, including wide receiver, offensive tackle, offensive guard, defensive tackle, linebacker, cornerback and safety.
Yes, that’s almost every position on the field…this sort of thing happens when a team is picking eighth with a new regime.
While almost every mock draft continues to give them whatever defensive end is left over, they are more likely to go anywhere else if the board falls anywhere near how many expect.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints have two first round picks which gives them an incredible amount of flexibility in the draft process.
If the Saints stay pat, they could add just about any position other than running back in the first round, as they have pretty pressing needs at wide receiver, offensive line, tight end and everywhere on defense. If a quarterback like Mariota falls (he’s actually a great fit for their scheme and has a lot of the same tools as Drew Brees did out of college), they could easily go that direction with their first pick or even trade up to do so.
They could also use their second first round pick and shock a lot of people by putting a third quarterback (Baylor’s Bryce Petty for instance) in the first round—something very few have said could happen.
None of this for the Saints or any other team on the list is what the Saints should or will do. Instead, it’s a reminder that every team—these five especially—could go entirely in a direction almost no one has mapped out for them.
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