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5 Good Bets In NFL Free Agency

Last week we previewed some of the bad decisions teams may make. Let’s take a look at a few good bets this free agency period.

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NFL teams have begun working on deals with impending free agents as free agency is set to begin Tuesday at 4PM. With teams trying to fill holes, there will always be teams taking big risks to land the players they think can turn their franchise around or help it continue to thrive. Last week we looked at five bad bets in NFL free agency. Let’s take a look at some guys who are going to be a much safer bet when teams begin their spending sprees.

The teams that re-signed key players

One of the reasons that the NFL free agency period is never the bonanza fans hope it’s going to be, is there are always teams locking up key guys before they actually hit the market, so the list fans have been drooling over is always whittled down by the time the shopping spree begins. Regardless of how good a guy has looked in another uniform, there’s always some risk that a guy doesn’t fit your locker room or your scheme as well as you had hoped. That’s never an issue when you re-sign your own players, because you know what you have. You know what you have in the locker room, and you know what you have on the field, and that is always a good bet when it comes to continuity.

This year is no different, as several teams have locked up key players before Tuesday’s free agent class is free to sign elsewhere. While the league’s legal tampering period isn’t exactly working the way the NFL would like it to, it has given teams a chance to negotiate with their own players with a better idea of what they might receive on the open market.

Not long ago it looked almost certain that the New England Patriots would lose both Darrelle Revis and Devin McCourty, but McCourty signed a new deal with the team that will keep him in New England. Jerry Hughes was able to reach a five-year deal of his own, remaining with the Buffalo Bills instead of hitting an open market that is short on pass rushers. Cornerbacks Kareem Jackson and Brandon Flowers decided to stay in Houston and San Diego respectively, and Randall Cobb gave the Packers a home town discount to stay in Green Bay. With the risk always associated with signing the guy you don’t know, signing the guy you do is often a great bet.

Terrance Knighton

One of the things that is always attractive to NFL clubs is a player who hasn’t had a ton of injury issues. It doesn’t matter how good you are if you’re always in the tub, and throwing a bunch of money at a guy who has an injury history doesn’t often work out well. Knighton has played in all 16 games in five of his six seasons in the NFL, missing just three games in 2011. Knighton is the kind of big run stopping defensive tackle that could fit just about anywhere, and isn’t easy to come by. While there are much bigger names on the free agent market, the player affectionately known as Pot Roast is a pretty good bet for teams looking for a defensive tackle.

Orlando Franklin

Orlando Franklin is a mean looking guy. No, that’s never a reason to sign a guy, but for some reason that makes you feel good about a guy in the trenches! A tackle his first three years in the league, Franklin really excelled inside at the guard position last season. At 6-foot-6 and 315 pounds, Franklin is the kind of mauler any team would like to have on their roster, and the San Diego Chargers look set to lock him down for around $7 million per season. Franklin isn’t the best offensive lineman on the market, but his versatility makes him a great value. While Franklin is a much better player inside at guard, his ability to kick outside to right tackle in a bind is big in a league where almost no entire line gets though a season healthy together. In a year with solid interior offensive lineman on the market, Franklin is one of the best bets a team could make.

Justin Forsett

Skeptics of Justin Forsett will point out that 2014 was the first time the back, who was drafted in 2008, has run for over 1,000 yards, but it was also the first time Forsett had over 118 carries. Forsett finished the 2014 season with 1,266 yards, and averaged over 5 yards per carry for the fourth time in his career. While nobody should expect Forsett to come in and become Tony Dorsett, he should provide a team with great value. Because DeMarco Murray is on the open market, there are some other decent options like C.J. Spiller and Antone Smith, and because this draft class is deep at the position, Forsett won’t command a huge contract. Considering Forsett can likely be had without breaking the bank, it’s a good bet that whoever signs him will get their money’s worth.

Harry Douglas

There’s been next to no talk about teams having interest in Harry Douglas since his release from the Atlanta Falcons, and frankly that’s a bit of a surprise. There isn’t a lot of star power in this free agent class at receiver, but there is a lot of depth. Randall Cobb would have headlined the class had he not decided to re-sign with the Packers, but after Cobb there are a lot of guys with question marks. Kenny Britt and Hakeem Nicks are both guys who have flashed number one receiver ability, but they’ve both been so inconsistent that it’s hard to even consider them a lock to be a good teams number two guy. While there might be bigger names, or even guys with more upside than Douglas, he’s a great bet for a team that needs a slot guy. Douglas isn’t just good in the slot, as he has shown an ability to step up every time either Julio Jones or Roddy White has gone down. For a team needing a third receiver who can step up when necessary, Douglas isn’t just a good bet, he’s a no brainer.

Pat Donovan has covered the NFL for almost a decade and is a host and producer for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers radio flagship 620WDAE/95.3FM. Pat covers the NFC South and NFC East for Football Insiders. Follow him on Twitter, @PatDonovanNFL.

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