March 10^th is the first day of the new league year, but more importantly for most of us, the first day NFL free agents are free to sign on the dotted line. While everyone gets excited when their teams begin making moves to attempt to get their franchise over the top, there are always some big misses in free agency that leave fans scratching their heads wondering what their team was thinking.  Every year teams roll the dice hoping to put together a team that can win it all, but there’s always some teams hoping to win some bad free agency bets. Let’s take a look at some players who could end up being a big mistake when teams start throwing the cash around.

Josh McCown

Perhaps one of the worst free agent bets has already been made, and it’s unsurprisingly been made by the Cleveland Browns. On the one hand, the Browns have put together a team with a strong defense that was able to win seven games last season. No, 7-9 isn’t a good record, but considering the expectations Browns’ fans had for the 2014 season, it’s a start.

Of course, on the other hand, you have Josh Gordon, Johnny Manziel, and even Browns GM Ray Farmer putting the Browns in the news for all the wrong reasons.

This year, the Browns must have been ready to disappoint their fans before the new league year even begins because the team has signed quarterback Josh McCown after his release from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While it’s difficult to imagine a quarterback that looked as good as McCown did two seasons ago in Chicago is finished, the scene in Tampa Bay last year was simply horrific. While the Buccaneers did have one of the worst offensive lines in all of football a season ago, when McCown was given time, he displayed the decision making of a rookie quarterback. For an astute guy, his play on the field was simply puzzling a year ago. While the offensive line deserves a ton of the blame, a lot of McCown’s turnovers where made on plays that left you wondering what the aging quarterback was thinking. McCown is a great guy, and he’ll be a great mentor for Manziel, if that’s what the Browns brought him in to do. However, if the Browns brought McCown in to start, as McCown believes he will, this is likely a big mistake.

Darrelle Revis

Darrelle Revis isn’t officially a free agent yet, but it’s a mere formality that he’s going to hit the market.  There’s no question that Revis is a great player, but whether or not he’s worth the money he’s going to demand is going to be another question. It was clear that the Buccaneers would have been better off signing three or four players with the money they spent on Revis a couple seasons ago.

For the New England Patriots, Revis ended up being a great fit, and a huge part of the reason that defense was as good as it was in 2014. So the question will be, when someone pays Revis, will it be worth it?

Signing Revis is a win now move. That’s the reason it was foolish for the Buccaneers to pay him what they did, and brilliant for the Patriots to do the same. Signing Revis should be a get you over the top move, not a “look at our shiny new toy” move.  At the end of the day, Revis wants quarterback money to play cornerback in the NFL.

It’s very difficult to build a roster with that kind of money sunk into one player if he’s not taking snaps from center. If you look at the teams that have the kind of cap space to pay Revis the dollars he’s going to want, there aren’t many Super Bowl contenders among that group. We’ll have to see if Revis getting his hands on a Lombardi trophy will make winning more important than money to the veteran corner. If it looks like Revis is still more interested in collecting pay checks than collecting jewelry, then teams better proceed with caution. If a team is a “Revis-like” player away from winning a championship, than he is a great fit. However, for a team that isn’t ready to win, or has a bunch of holes to fill, dropping that quarterback money on the talented defensive back is likely a bad bet.

DeMarco Murray

DeMarco Murray was the 2014 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, and looks like the kind of back that every team would like to have in their backfield.

But is he?

In a league where the running back is becoming less and less of a premiere position, is it really a great idea to invest premiere money on a tailback? With Murray coming off of a career year, and because of the  expanding salary cap, somebody is going to overpay for the hype around him. Teams with a ton of cap room that need to make a splash will consider Murray, but don’t be surprised if good teams that make good decisions don’t.

You can talk all day about how well he might fit with one team or another, but if Murray decides to take less money, it will likely be to stay in Dallas. If Murray gets a big deal, it won’t likely be with a good football team, because paying a guy like Murray a bunch of money is a bad football move.

As good as Murray’s season was, there are a litany of reasons why he’s not the kind of player to build your free agency class around. First, take a look at the free agent class of running backs. While Murray may headline the class, there are less expensive options like Justin Forsett, Mark Ingram or C.J. Spiller who could end up having as much of an impact next season. While you shouldn’t consider the Dallas Cowboys offensive line the only reason Murray looked so good last season, it’s certainly a factor, and it’s not crazy to think other backs could have had similar seasons behind it.

Then of course, there’s the draft. Running back might just be the deepest position in the upcoming draft, and that won’t do Murray any favors either. It’s hard to spend a ton of money in free agency at any positon when you know there will be talented players at that position three, four, or even five rounds into April’s draft.

Then, there’s Murray himself. 2014 wasn’t just Murray’s first great year, it was the first time the back has started 16 games. Where some will see that as meaning there’s less wear and tear on him, others will question his durability, and that’s fair. When you can question a player’s durability, and whether or not his success was largely because of his teammates, and there’s a lot of comparable, more affordable players available at his position, it’s really difficult to bet on that guy.

 Julius Thomas

Like Darrelle Revis, Julius Thomas will be the best player available at his position, in both free agency, or during the NFL draft. For that reason, these might be the easiest dice to roll in this discussion, but that doesn’t mean he’s a great bet.

The 2015 draft class is poor at tight end, and the free agent class isn’t a whole lot better, so Thomas should be in high demand for a team looking to add a dynamic, pass catching tight end. However, for teams like Denver Broncos, where new head Coach Gary Kubiak will want to run the ball, Thomas isn’t a great fit because he’s not a great run blocker.

Also, while it’s unfair to say that Thomas’ success is simply a product of having Peyton Manning throwing him the ball, there’s a line of tight ends who never saw the same success outside of their time with Peyton behind him that makes one at least consider how much that had to do with it. The biggest number when it comes to Thomas is 24. That’s the number of touchdowns the tight end has caught over the last two seasons in Denver.

But would he really get that many opportunities to score in another offense, with another quarterback?

For many, it’s highly doubtful that Thomas could be the player he is just about anywhere else, outside of maybe Green Bay where Aaron Rodgers could use a big target over the middle. Thomas is the best tight end available this offseason, but that could possibly sky rocket his salary into a place where the risk may not be worth the potential reward.

Ryan Mathews

This argument might be very short. While Ryan Mathews was the 12^th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, there’s little he’s done since entering the league to show he warranted being selected that high. Actually, he hasn’t done much to prove he should have been the 12^th pick of the second round that year, let alone of the first.

Just about everything that was said about Murray in this article can be said about Mathews, except the breakout season. Mathews has battled injury and inconsistency since entering the league, and while he has flashes of athletic brilliance, there just isn’t enough substance behind that flash to imagine a team parting ways with much money to get him in the fold. To his credit, Mathews has fumbled just five times over the last three seasons after fumbling five times in each of his first two years in the league, and he does look to be a much more competent player than when he stumbled into the NFL. However, durability concerns have to leave teams wondering if Mathews will ever have a real impact in this league.

Someone will, and someone should give Mathews another shot to play in the league, but if you had to lay money on his future,  you might be better off wagering that Mathews is out of the NFL before betting on him being an impact player for your favorite football team.