Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4)

Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET, at Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver – TV: CBS

*TV announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson

*Keys to the game: The Colts scored a touchdown on their opening possession last week for the first time all season. Indianapolis’ offense has built a reputation for starting slow before staging furious rallies, similar to the script from meetings against Denver each of the past two seasons. QB Andrew Luck believes his growth is instrumental in avoiding turnovers and early deficits, which could prove lethal on the road against Peyton Manning & Co.

Expect RB Dan Herron to get plenty of early touches as the Colts attempt to establish possession and trade punches with Denver’s defense, rather than taking them from Manning. Manning did not look himself down the stretch as the Broncos morphed into a run-heavy unit. With a bye week, all eyes will be on Manning’s arm strength at the outset.

The Colts lack a dynamic pass rusher to consistently pressure the pocket, and Manning has far more weapons than Indianapolis can contend with if Manning is close to 100 percent. The key for the Colts’ undersized front seven is to contain RB C.J. Anderson. If he’s effective early and setting up play-action, Denver will have little trouble driving into the red zone.

*Matchup to watch – Colts SS Mike Adams vs. Manning: Teammates last season, Adams has a strong respect for Manning’s preparation and intelligence. Knowing your opponent is one thing, stopping him is another, and Adams will play a key role in the cat and mouse pre-snap game.

*Player spotlight – Colts RB Daniel “Boom” Herron: Trent Richardson should see more action following an illness that limited him last week, but Herron has provided a versatile threat in the backfield. He rushed for a game-high 56 yards on 12 carries last week and caught a game-high 10 passes for another 85 yards.

*Fast facts: In his first four postseason games, Luck has thrown more passes (184) and thrown for more yards (1,438) than any other player in league history, besting Dan Fouts (182) and Kurt Warner (1,428) who held the previous records. … Manning is the NFL’s all-time playoff leader with 6,589 passing yards and is fourth with 37 TD passes.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

Manning has notoriously struggled in cold-weather games, but with temperatures expected near 40, a bye week to rest his 38-year-old body and a solid ground game chipping away at an undersized front seven, he puts the pressure on Luck early and Denver’s defense capitalizes with multiple turnovers.

*Our pick: Broncos 30-23