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AFC Divisional Preview: Cowboys at Packers
Dallas Cowboys (13-4) at Green Bay Packers (12-4)
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET, at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wis. – TV: FOX
*TV announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews.
*Keys to the game: Cowboys QB Tony Romo was sacked a season-high six times by the Lions last week. The Packers can bring some of the same poison, disguising blitzes by sliding around chess pieces at linebacker — Clay Matthews from outside to the middle and Julius Peppers from down to stand-up rusher.
The heavy pressure exposed the Dallas offensive line thought to be largely inpenetrable and calls into question Romo’s responsivness to pre-snap looks that imply the heat will be high.
Seeing the blitz coming and beating it — either with audibles into a stellar running game or by attacking one-on-one matchups on the perimeter — could make or break the Cowboys in a chilly venue where every mistake will be amplified. The Cowboys are running the ball 14 percent more — 49.3 percent in 17 games — than they did last season when these teams met, but some are concerned RB DeMarco Murray might be wearing down after 472 total touches, including 22 last week vs. Detroit.
The Packers should have plenty of pep in the 15-degree friendly confines of Lambeau after a bye last week that spared QB Aaron Rodgers 10 days of practice on his strained calf. Mobility might not be 100 percent or at training camp levels, but Rodgers is expected to be ready to roll.
That isn’t great news for the Cowboys, who are lacking a defined lead cornerback — Brandon Carr has struggled mightily and Orlando Scandrick gets by more on guts than gifts — and will likely utilize a soft zone to keep Rodgers from going over the top to talented WRs Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb.
Green Bay trusts RB Eddie Lacy, but as with Murray (five fumbles lost), his ball security is not a given. The big back can bulldoze for yards and expose Dallas inside, where SS Barry Church is no sure thing.
*Matchup to watch – Cowboys special teams vs. Packers special teams: Packers CB Micah Hyde has four return touchdowns in his career, including two punt return scores this season. Cowboys PK Dan Bailey made 25 of 29 field goal attempts this season but missed one last week. The Packers have had seven total kicks blocked this season.
*Player spotlight – Packers TE Richard Rodgers: Out of the blue, Rodgers had five of his 20 receptions this season in the Week 17 finale when the Lions doubled both outside receivers. Against the Cover-2 scheme, Aaron Rodgers will look to slot receiver Cobb and rookie TE Rodgers.
*Fast facts: This is the first playoff game pitting an 8-0 home team (Green Bay) against a team that went 8-0 on the road (Dallas). … With a win, the Cowboys would reach a NFL-record-tying 15th NFC Championship game (San Francisco). … On a combined 154 targets, Cowboys WRs Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley have zero drops. … Cowboys WR Dez Bryant (16) and Packers WR Jordy Nelson (13) were first and second in the NFL in touchdown catches. … The Packers outscored opponents 151-58 in the first quarter this season. … The Packers led the NFL with a plus-14 turnover margin.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
If the Packers get out to a lead, the Cowboys are capable of climbing out of the danger zone against most teams, but Green Bay’s offensive talent exceeds that of most Dallas opponents. With two excellent quarterbacks and marginal defenses, the outcome could rest on a few key plays in the second half. Romo leads the NFL with 27 game-winning drives since 2006, but only one — last week — in the playoffs.
*Our pick: Packers 36-29
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