The Sports Xchange

Green Bay Packers (3-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, at Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif. – TV: FOX

*TV announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews

*Keys to the game: The 49ers’ defense gave an inspired performance in a Week 1 victory over Minnesota at home, and San Francisco will need to muster that same level of energy to avoid getting embarrassed for a third consecutive week. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is enjoying good protection and completing 73.6 percent of his passes while posting a 135.4 passer rating through three games. The key to the 49ers being competitive is to contain RBs Eddie Lacy and James Starks, who combine to average a modest 3.8 yards per carry. While Rodgers has been excellent working with WRs Randall Cobb and James Jones, no one else has double-digit receptions and the 49ers need to force Rodgers to look elsewhere on third down.

QB Colin Kaepernick sports a 2-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio, and without a dominant defense, expect a conservative, run-heavy approach from the 49ers – especially with TE Vernon Davis (knee) doubtful to play. RB Carlos Hyde is averaging 4.9 yards per carry while the Packers are giving up 5.0 yards per carry. Putting Kaepernick in short passing situations could be the ticket to controlling the ball and keeping Rodgers on the sideline. WR Torrey Smith is averaging 18.7 yards per catch, but Kaepernick rarely is afford the time to stretch the field behind a spotty offensive line.

*Matchup to watch – Packers secondary vs. 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick: Green Bay opened last week’s game against Kansas City in a three-safety formation and could feature that look heavily while expecting a run-first approach from the 49ers. The Packers want to limit Kaepernick’s scrambling (23 carries for 138 yards; 6.0 yards per carry) and take advantage of his erratic arm when attempting to stretch the field.

*Player spotlight – Packers WR Ty Montgomery: With Davante Adams (ankle) uncertain, the rookie could play a big role as the third receiver. He has six catches for 51 yards and a score on the season.

*Fast facts: Packers PK Mason Crosby needs four field goals to break Ryan Longwell’s franchise record of 277. … Rodgers was selected 22 picks after the 49ers used the No. 1 overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft on Alex Smith.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

Looking inside the numbers, the Packers aren’t deep and are being led by Aaron Rodgers’ incredible play during the first month of the season. The 49ers keep it closer than expected at home before Colin Kaepernick makes the key mistake he has been prone to in high profile showdowns.

*Our pick: Packers 26-20.