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Examining The Odds: NFC East
No team has repeated as NFC East Champ in more than 10 years, will Dallas break the trend?
The NFL season is still a few months away, but with OTAs around the league in full gear and mandatory minicamps just around the corner, we’re getting a good glance at how things are shaping up around the league and who the contenders are.
Over the last few weeks we’ve taken a look at the Vegas favorites to win the divisions around the AFC, and who the best bets are to upset the oddsmakers and jump to the top. Now with some updated odds we switch gears to the NFC, and kick things off with what will once again be one of the most competitive divisions in all of football, the NFC East.
The division was once known as the NFC Beast, when three of the four teams were playoff contenders. But it has come to be known more recently as the NFC Least as the teams have beaten each other up and barely kept their heads above water with just one emerging to make the postseason each year.
However, it’s an absolute certainty that, one way or another, the East will be competitive. Over the last four seasons, each team in the division has won the crown once, a mark of parity no other division can boast. In fact, the last time a team repeated as NFC East Champion was when the Philadelphia Eagles won the crown four times from 2001-2004.
So whose turn is it to take the crown this season?
FAVORITE
Dallas Cowboys 6:5 (Opened at 13:10)
After a surprising 2014 campaign saw them rise from three straight years of mediocrity (8-8) to a division-winning 12-4 mark, the Cowboys are seeking to become the first team in more than 10 years to repeat as NFC East Champions. The oddsmakers like them to do just that, but only slightly as the East is one of just three divisions with no decided favorite.
For the Cowboys to repeat, they have to answer two critical questions: 1) how do you replace the league-leading and franchise-record ground game production of the departed DeMarco Murray? and 2) can a defense that looks better on paper be just as good or better on the field? The two questions actually go hand-in-hand. The Dallas defense was successful last season in-part because of the balance of the offense and the use of the running game kept them off the field for long periods of time, the sign of a good football team and a trait Cowboys teams had been lacking for several years.
If they can continue to do that, Dallas should once again thrive.
In terms of talent, the Cowboys are better positioned defensively entering this season than they were last year. The return of Sean Lee, provided he can stay healthy, will do wonders for the linebacking corps. Up front, the late season emergence of DeMarcus Lawrence gives Dallas something to build on, though they’ll hope for more instant development from 2015 second round draft pick Randy Gregory. The suspension of free agent signing of Greg Hardy is a wild card. If Hardy’s suspension remains at 10 games, he may wind up being a non-factor for the team. But if it is reduced, their pass rush will be significantly improved and could rival any in the division. The Cowboys defensive backfield still has some question marks, and the team will be counting on first round pick Byron Jones to step in immediately and answer some of those questions. Morris Claiborne is another wild card here. If the former first rounder, can get healthy and produce anywhere near the level once expected, Dallas could suddenly have depth in the secondary.
But the key for the Cowboys will be to once again keep the defense off the field as much as possible with sustained drives on offense. Murray’s departure complicates that pursuit. It’s hard to question Dallas’ reasoning for letting Murray go. But it’s how the team has chosen to replace him that’s concerning. It was assumed they would take their next franchise runner in a draft loaded with talent at the position, but they made eight draft selections without taking a running back. In fact the team made just one addition to their backfield this offseason, the signing of oft-injured former Raiders running back Darren McFadden.
Now the Cowboys are counting on McFadden, Joseph Randle and the unsung but finally fully healthy Ryan Williams to lead what is likely to be a running back by committee in Big D. This committee approach puts the onus for success exactly where Dallas wants it, on their’ offensive line, the NFL’s best front five. The group got even better with the post-draft addition of projected Top 10 pick La’el Collins. Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has all the weapons necessary to be successful with an air-raid offense, and being one more year removed from back trouble can only help Romo. But Dallas can’t fall in love with the pass again. Despite the presence of a franchise running back like Murray, the Cowboys must remain committed to establishing the run or risk falling right back to mediocrity.
BEST CHANCE TO CHALLENGE
Philadelphia Eagles 8:5 (Opened at 3/2)
No team hit the reset button quite as dramatically as the Philadelphia Eagles did this offseason. The team’s starting quarterback, leading rusher and leading receiver from 2014 were all jettisoned and yet the Eagles are still expected to offer the biggest challenge to Dallas’ division title hopes; and there’s a chance they could do that. If Coach Chip Kelly’s plan works to perfection, Philadelphia could be a juggernaut. There’s also a chance this plan, consisting of many moving parts and little continuity, could fail spectacularly.
One place the Eagles do have some cohesion is their front seven, which is one of the best in the NFL and easily the best in the division. Rumors that two of that groups key pieces, defensive end Fletcher Cox and inside linebacker Mychal Kendricks would be traded turned out to be false, and instead the two were complemented by the addition of inside linebacker Kiko Alonso, a rookie of the year candidate in a breakout 2013 season before a knee injury ended his 2014 campaign before it began. But the most dynamic piece of the Philly front seven is Connor Barwin, who established himself as one of the league’s premiere pass rushers with 14.5 sacks in 2014 and could be even better as part of this deep and talented group. On the backend, the Eagles addressed the holes in their secondary with a partial rebuild. The signing of former Seahawks corner Byron Maxwell headlines the new-look defensive backfield. But Philadelphia’s failure to address their needs at safety as well could come back and bite them.
Kelly’s project is counting on a lot of things breaking his team’s way in 2015, especially on offense. The swapped quarterbacks with the St. Louis Rams, obtaining oft-injured former No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford, who hasn’t played a regular season game since October 2013. After some flirtations with a trade up in the draft to obtain Oregon quarterback and Kelly pupil Marcus Mariota, it’s indeed Bradford who will be starting for Philly. Complementing Bradford will be several other new pieces. The Eagles also traded running back LeSean McCoy and replaced him by signing the league’s leading rusher last season DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews, another oft-injured former first rounder. The team then opted not to re-sign wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and spent their first round pick on USC wideout Nelson Agholor, who has been touted as a Maclin clone.
If everything goes according to plan and each of the fragile new pieces remains healthy, the offense should be dynamic. When not injured in St. Louis, Bradford was very good and he didn’t have near the supporting cast he does in Philly. Agholor, Jordan Matthews and tight end Zach Ertz are the building blocks of a deep receiving corps that is constructed to fit Kelly’s offense perfectly. Murray won’t get near the workload he did in Dallas with Mathews and Darren Sproles behind him and that should bode well for his longevity. Philly also has one of the league’s more underrated offensive lines, though the departure of Todd Herremans and the team’s impending divorce with Evan Mathis could weaken that group quite a bit.
But the biggest question marks for Philly’s will be health and the importance of continuity on offense. With a slew of players all learning Kelly’s offense from scratch, how quickly will the Eagles click? And will the new arrivals be able to stay healthy long enough for it to matter?
THE WILD CARD
New York Giants 3:1 (Opened at 13:4)
Flying under the radar with the offseason maneuverings of Dallas and Philadelphia is the only NFC East team to actually make something of their division crown in recent vintage, the New York Giants. Although the Giants didn’t make any flashy moves this offseason, they did several things to address their depth after an injury-riddled 2014 season saw them finish with their worst record in a decade. That and some better luck could put New York in position to be plenty more successful this season.
While the Eagles have decided continuity is not a requirement for success, the Giants are counting on the stability of their squad from one year to the next to lead them in the right direction. That continuity is led by quarterback Eli Manning, entering his 12th season. Since grabbing the starting job as a rookie in 2004, Manning hasn’t missed a game, for all the ridicule he gets, New York has been better with his presence, and to help him along the Giants have given him his best set of complementary pieces yet.
Odell Beckham Jr. emerged as a star last season and having Victor Cruz back alongside him gives the Giants an elite 1-2 punch. New York will need to find some better production on the ground and the addition of Shane Vereen will help, but the performance of the NY ground game comes down to two things. First, running back Rashad Jennings needs to stay on the field. Jennings was good last year when healthy, but those instances were too few and far between after the first month of the season. Secondly, the Giants need a better effort out of their offensive line. The addition of first round pick Ereck Flowers helps, but the season ending injury to Will Beatty offsets it. If the New York offensive line can’t find a way to make up for it, they could be in for another long season.
On defense, the Giants are positioned very well for a bounce back. Up front, New York used the franchise tag to retain the key piece, defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul and the emergence of defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins last year gave the front four balance. Likewise in the linebacking corps, 2014 fifth rounder Devon Kennard emerged as a playmaker late last season, and his presence should take some of the pressure off Jon Beason to carry the load for the group. The Giants aggressively filled a need in the secondary by moving up in the draft to land the top safety therein, Alabama’s Landon Collins. New York adds Collins to a defensive backfield that already sports two top tier corners in Prince Amukamara and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. If the new/old Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo can find an answer at free safety, New York could have the division’s best total defense.
It’s a near certainty that the Giants will be better in 2015. It’s hard to keep a Tom Coughlin coached and Eli Manning led team down for too long. But without many key additions, it’s fair to wonder whether New York can take the number of steps forward necessary to compete with Dallas and to a lesser degree Philadelphia for the division title.
DON’T TAKE THESE ODDS
Washington Redskins (Opened at 15:1)
It’s been a rough couple years for the Washington Redskins, who have experienced one of the quicker and more crushing falls from grace in recent memory. Washington is just two seasons removed from winning the NFC East, but entering the 2015 season, they couldn’t be further from the top.
The Redskins has question marks all over their roster at the outset the offseason and did their best to answer many of them. On the defensive side of the ball, they’ll hope the latest round of additions is better than the last. Up front, the signings of nose tackle Terrance Knighton and defensive end Stephen Paea should help greatly, opening more opportunities for last season’s key addition Jason Hatcher as well as the team’s lone bright spot last year, outside linebacker Ryan Kerrigan. Still the linebacking corps looks like a weakness overall. Perry Riley and Keenan Robinson both underachieved last year, and it’s hard to expect much early out of second round pick Preston Smith, who has some developing to do. The secondary also has more questions than answers, complicated by DeAngelo Hall’s return from a torn Achilles. The team did bring in former 49ers corner Chris Culliver which should help at cornerback. But they’ll need their flyer on another former Niner, Dashon Goldson, who disappointed after signing a big deal with Tampa Bay, to pay off for the backend of their defense to be any better.
On offense, the story begins and ends with quarterback Robert Griffin III, who gets yet another chance to prove what he is as a player, as if we don’t know that already. He’ll be aided by the team’s draft selection of Brandon Scherff in the first round to bolster an offensive line that already ranked in the top half of the league in the run game but needs to be better protecting the passer. If the Redskins can keep Griffin upright and on the field, perhaps they’ll be able to establish an offensive identity and win some football games. They have plenty of complementary pieces in place with Alfred Morris coming off his third straight 1,000-yard season, DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon leading a talented group of wide receivers and one of the league’s deepest stable of tight ends. It falls on Griffin to make it work, in what could be his last chance to do so in D.C.
TAKE THESE ODDS
New York Giants 3:1 (Opened at 13:4)
The Dallas Cowboys are probably the most likely team to rise to the top of this crop and become the first repeat division champs in over a decade, but where’s the fun in picking the favorite? The Eagles would be an interesting risk, but the odds aren’t presenting enough of a reward to take them. Instead, roll with the slightly longer odds against the New York Giants.
The NYG defense has the potential to be stout and with a season under his belt in Ben McAdoo’s offense, Manning and the Giants should be better offensively as well in 2015. Giants fans are rightly salivating over what Odell Beckham Jr. can do over a full season with Victor Cruz taking some of the attention of defenses off of him. That will open things up even more for the running game and if New York gets production there, something they sorely lacked for much of last season, they will be a dangerous team in the always wide-open East.
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