As the second full week of OTAs begins across the NFL this week, and teams continue to build in voluntary workouts ahead of minicamps and training camps to come, we’re examining each division based on the Las Vegas odds and identifying which teams have a chance to upset the oddsmakers and take an unexpected division title.

After analyzing the AFC East, AFC North and AFC South, it’s on to the wild AFC West, where the four-time defending champion Denver Broncos continue to be marked as the strong favorite. But there is at least one team lurking behind them primed to pounce on a Broncos squad that appears as susceptible as any since Peyton Manning arrived in Denver.

THE FAVORITE
Denver Broncos 5:12

As I wrote in April, the Broncos are a team in a state of transition, set in motion by the firing of coach John Fox and subsequent hiring of Gary Kubiak. But with a 39-year-old all-time great quarterback, likely playing his last NFL season in rabid pursuit of another championship, there is some denial in Denver about that transition, which complicates their title pursuit.

But the clouds hanging over their postseason aspirations say little about the Broncos’ ability to win the division for a fifth straight season. As currently constructed, Denver is, at the very least, a playoff-bound team, and the overwhelming choice to win the West yet again with good reason. Peyton Manning led teams have won division titles in five straight season he’s been healthy, 10 of the last 11 and 11 of the 16 years he’s played.

However, the Broncos are more than Manning. Last season they not only had the league’s fourth best offense, but its third best defense in terms of yards allowed per game and Pro Football Focus ranked the Denver defense as the best in the league. They will be switching to a 3-4 base scheme in 2015, but with defensive mastermind Wade Phillips brought in to lead the change, and most of their personnel intact, they shouldn’t skip a beat. With DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller coming off the edge, and rookie first round pick Shane Ray added to the mix, Phillips has the defensive talent to implement the aggressive playcalling his defenses are known for. Bringing more pressure from the linebacking corps will allow Malik Jackson and Derek Wolfe to thrive along the line as well, particularly as run stuffers. The secondary should be strong again with the former Ravens safety Darian Stewart replacing Rahim Moore alongside T.J. Ward, and the cornerback pairing of Chris Harris and Aqib Talib remains one of the league’s most dynamic. It all positions the Broncos to be a dominant defense again in 2015.

On offense, the departures of tight end Julius Thomas and wide receiver Wes Welker aren’t as major as they seem, and the Broncos have players ready to replace both. But how well the Denver offense can adjust to change — and, in conjunction, how far the Broncos can go as a team — depends heavily on the success of the new offense being implemented. Under Kubiak and offensive coordinator Rick Dennison, the Broncos are seeking balance to to take some pressure off Manning. Handing the ball off to a running back committee headed by C.J. Anderson proved successful for Denver late last season with Manning ailing.

But the problematic part of that equation is Denver’s completely re-made offensive line, which now — thanks to a season-ending knee injury suffered by left tackle Ryan Clady — has just one piece remaining from last season’s bunch: Louis Vasquez, who shifts back inside to his natural position of right guard. The other four spots are in flux after the departure of Orlando Franklin and the trade of Manny Ramirez. Offseason acquisitions Shelley Smith and Gino Gradkowski will take their places at left guard and center respectively, but both tackle positions are expected to be up for grabs in training camp with a slew of young players and veterans competing for playing time. But the names involved don’t inspire much confidence in Denver’s ability to block for the run game to balance their offense, nor in their ability to protect Manning.

Instead, it’s easy to see the Broncos taking some time to develop the rhythm needed to succeed, which could open the door for another team to win the AFC West.

BEST CHANCE TO CHALLENGE
Kansas City Chiefs 7:2

The strongest competition for the division crown will likely come from a Kansas City squad that had their playoff hopes derailed in 2014 by a disappointing offensive campaign. Quarterback Alex Smith and his receiving corps failing to connect for a single touchdown and that gave the Chiefs little opportunity to keep pace with the Broncos. But KC still has one of the league’s best defenses, which allowed them to finish 9-7, just one game short of their second straight postseason appearance. That defense and an offense that should be considerably better in 2015, thanks to their personnel additions this offseason, put them right back in position to not only compete for a playoff spot, but to make a run at their first division title since 2010.

Kansas City addressed their lack of production at wide receiver by releasing Dwayne Bowe and replacing him with Jeremy Maclin, one of coach Andy Reid’s former pupils in Philadelphia. The Chiefs still need to find a complement to Maclin on the outside, but the offense has plenty of other weapons. While Smith failed to find much success with his receivers, his connection with tight end Travis Kelce was immediate and abundant. KC also still has one of the league’s most dynamic running backs in Jamaal Charles and the running game will be further aided by an offensive line that has been rebuilt on the inside with a new center and two new guards, including two-time Pro Bowler Ben Grubbs. The upgrades at positions of need should translate into more consistent performance from the Kansas City offense.

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense was one of the league’s best against the pass and one of its worst against the run in 2014. To combat that imbalance, KC is looking for bounce back seasons from Mike DeVito and Derrick Johnson, two players whose absence due to Achilles injuries suffered early last season forced KC into scramble mode from the outset. In their stead, the difference-maker was All-Pro Justin Houston, who broke out as one of the NFL’s top pass rushers and forced the Chiefs to use the franchise tag to retain him. Johnson’s return should solidify the inside of the linebacker group and the presence of DeVito alongside Allen Bailey up front could take some of the pressure off Dontari Poe. That might allow the nose tackle to get back to his All-Pro form. If DeVito and Johnson can return at even close to what they were pre-injury, Kansas City might have the most complete front seven in the division.

The Chiefs are also positioned strongly in the defensive backfield. Cornerback Sean Smith broke out in 2014 and finished the season ranked fifth overall among NFL corners by Pro Football Focus, and third in coverage rating ahead of both Darrelle Revis and Richard Sherman. This year, alongside Smith and 2014 third round pick Phillip Gaines will by 2015 first rounder Marcus Peters, arguably the best corner in the draft, which should make the group even more dynamic. The duo of Ron Parker and Husain Abdullah performed well at safety last season, but Chiefs secondary could receive an even bigger boost if safety Eric Berry is cleared to return after completing treatments for Hodgkin lymphoma.

Berry’s return would complete a Chiefs defense that could once again carry the team if everything breaks right, and any kind of uptick in offensive production could position the franchise strongly for a run at dethroning the Broncos.

THE OTHER GUYS
San Diego Chargers 9:2

There are several similarities between the Chargers and the Chiefs entering the 2015 season. Both teams finished one game shy of the 10-6 mark that got the Baltimore Ravens into the playoffs, and San Diego also made some key moves on both sides of the ball this offseason hoping they can make up the difference and rise to the top of the West.

While the Chiefs offense was plagued by problems in their passing game, the Chargers were solid through the air and should continue to be, led by quarterback Philip Rivers. Instead, San Diego owed the struggles of their offense to a consistently underperforming running game, which ranked 30th in the NFL in yards per game last season. Gone is the oft-injured Ryan Mathews, replaced by first round pick Melvin Gordon. However, the Chargers know that for Gordon to have any success on the ground, their offensive line simply must be better after ranking 31st in the league last year according to Pro Football Focus.

That’s why they made their biggest move of the offseason an upgrade to the interior of the offensive line by signing Orlando Franklin away from the Broncos. The move was doubly impactful as it simultaneously improved the San Diego offensive line and weakened that of division rival Denver. With Franklin at left guard, re-signed King Dunlap at left tackle, and 2014 third round pick Chris Watt ready to step in at center, three parts of the Chargers line are set. San Diego also brought in Joe Barksdale, who started 16 games at RT last year in St. Louis, which should mean a move inside to right guard for D.J. Fluker. If the Chargers can get the front five in order, it should make the offense stronger by creating an atmosphere for a more consistent running game. That along with better protection would give Rivers more time, and the opportunity to thrive.

But while defense could allow Kansas City to overtake Denver, it’s defense that’s likely to hold San Diego back this season. Once again like the Chiefs, the Chargers overall defense was stingy in 2014, allowing the ninth fewest yards in the league, but San Diego also had one of the NFL’s worst run defenses in 2014. Where things start to differ between the two clubs is that it’s hard to see where the improvements will come in that regard for the Chargers. They have just one solid piece on their defensive front: end Corey Liuget. The rest of the front seven is plagued by a lack of talent in the case of the defensive line, or a lack of production in the case of the linebackers. In fact, the most productive member of the team’s linebacking corps last season, Dwight Freeney, remains an unsigned free agent.

San Diego’s secondary will continue to be the strength of the defense, led by All-Pro Eric Weddle. Although they lost strong safety Marcus Gilchrist, his replacement Jimmy Wilson graded out higher last season. The Chargers also took important steps to retain cornerback Brandon Flowers. But there will be a lot of pressure on the backend of the defense to pick up the weak front seven, and it could drag down the San Diego defense as a result. That’s why despite the improvements for the Chargers on offense, they’re far from a safe bet to make any headway on the AFC West crown in 2015.

DON’T TAKE THESE ODDS
Oakland Raiders 25:1

Every division needs a bottom-feeder and the Raiders have become excellent at filling that role during a 12-year run over which their ceiling has been mediocrity at best. It’s gotten particularly bad in the last three seasons, forcing a regime change this offseason. Though their offseason moves indicate Oakland may finally be building the right way, this isn’t going to be one of those worst to first stories and there’s no reason to bet on the Raiders to win the AFC West. It’s going to be a methodical build in Oakland.

But simply by being a better team in 2015, the Raiders could have an impact on the division title race. On offense, Oakland seems to have finally found their quarterback in 2014 second round pick Derek Carr who finished a good rookie campaign with an excellent month of December despite not having much around him. The Raiders got him some help with the draft selection of wide receiver Amari Cooper and Oakland should have a strong running game behind an offensive line that continues to improve annually, so their offense could surprise.

Oakland also has some solid pieces in place on defense, led by linebackers Khalil Mack and Sio Moore. They added some help in the middle when they signed linebacker Curtis Lofton and a big piece up front when they inked defensive tackle Dan Williams. The draft selection of Mario Edwards Jr. in the second round should also help complement defensive end Justin Tuck, who had a great first season in Oakland. However the Raiders remain weak on the backend, with newcomer Nate Allen the only projected starter in the secondary who graded out positively last season. With plenty of holes still to fill, Oakland is going to lose a bunch of games, but they should still be noticeably better than anytime over the previous three seasons, and that could shake things up a bit in the West with six divisional games on the slate.

TAKE THESE ODDS
Kansas City Chiefs 7:2

The revamped Chiefs pose a legitimate threat to Denver’s run of divisional dominance even with the Broncos at full strength. The Kansas City defense is going to make it hard on teams to move the ball and their offensive production should be better with Maclin and a full complement of Travis Kelce. If the Broncos can remain relatively healthy, they’ll probably end up back at the top. But with plenty of question marks surrounding Peyton Manning, particularly with a suspect offensive line in front of him, the Chiefs offer just the right balance of risk and reward to make them a realistic bet to surge and take the AFC West.